luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

Chiefs at Panthers, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Panthers 30–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:46 left): the Panthers’ two-point try was good, worth 16 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 30
Carolina Panthers 27

November 24, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −11

Luck index +8 Chiefs about even · −8 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 KC 38 CAR 7
  2. 2 KC 34 CAR 10
  3. 3 KC 27 CAR 7
  4. 4 KC 37 CAR 21
  5. 5 KC 35 CAR 23
  6. 6 KC 13 CAR 3
  7. 7 KC 20 CAR 13
  8. 8 KC 14 CAR 10
  9. 9 KC 19 CAR 17
  10. 10 KC 14 CAR 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 92% of them, Panthers 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+50.3%
Chiefs by 9–1623.4%
Chiefs by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation1.6%
Panthers by 1–85.2%
Panthers by 9–161.8%
Panthers by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Chiefs by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 11.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • S. Shrader, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • S. Shrader, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • S. Shrader, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 10 for 91 yards, Panthers 9 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:54 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.6 pts
Q2 11:02 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +6% CAR +1.8 pts
Q2 10:37 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 4 yards +4% KC +1.4 pts
Q2 10:14 False Start on the Chiefs, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 9:09 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 10 yards +3% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 5:25 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 7 yards +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q3 15:00 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.6 pts
Q3 6:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Justin Reid), 1 yard 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q3 6:26 False Start on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +5.6 pts
Q3 6:20 Face Mask on the Panthers, 15 yards +5% KC +1.8 pts
Q3 5:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 5 yards +2% KC +0.8 pts
Q3 3:13 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers (A'Shawn Robinson), 4 yards +2% KC +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs, 15 yards +7% CAR +1.8 pts
Q4 13:19 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.5 pts
Q4 8:45 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 4:37 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.3 pts
Q4 3:31 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Chiefs (Joshua Williams), 5 yards 0% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 1:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 28 yards +9% CAR +3.1 pts
Q4 1:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 1 yard 0% CAR 0.0 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:44 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:20 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
3 Q2 8:11 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% CAR KC: Field goal
4 Q3 11:32 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:30 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +10% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 28 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1416 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:46 The Panthers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 1 yardJudgment calls · 9 flags in 2798 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +16% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:02 S. Shrader made 31-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +16% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Scott (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaylen Watson (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Harrison Butker (KC K), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 95% · Panthers 5%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
8.9 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 11.9
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 92% · Panthers 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Chiefs · Panthers

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