luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · November 21, 2024–November 25

Week 12 2024: who deserved to win

4 of 13 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Cowboys beat the Commanders 34–26 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 12 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cowboys 34–26 @ Commanders 22% 19% Lucky
Titans 32–27 @ Texans 28% 50% Coin flip
Browns 24–19 vs Steelers 40% 28% Lucky
Seahawks 16–6 vs Cardinals 47% 39% Lucky

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Cowboys W 34–26 @ Commanders 19% +81
2 Browns W 24–19 vs Steelers 28% +72
3 Broncos W 29–19 @ Raiders 31% +69
4 Seahawks W 16–6 vs Cardinals 39% +61
5 Titans W 32–27 @ Texans 50% +50
6 Vikings W 30–27 @ Bears 79% +21
7 Dolphins W 34–15 vs Patriots 90% +10
8 Buccaneers W 30–7 @ Giants 91% +9
9 Chiefs W 30–27 @ Panthers 92% +8
10 Ravens W 30–23 @ Chargers 92% +8
11 Eagles W 37–20 @ Rams 95% +5
12 Packers W 38–10 vs 49ers 95% +5
13 Lions W 24–6 @ Colts 96% +4
14 Colts L 6–24 vs Lions 4% −4
15 49ers L 10–38 @ Packers 5% −5
16 Rams L 20–37 vs Eagles 5% −5
17 Chargers L 23–30 vs Ravens 8% −8
18 Panthers L 27–30 vs Chiefs 8% −8
19 Giants L 7–30 vs Buccaneers 9% −9
20 Patriots L 15–34 @ Dolphins 10% −10
21 Bears L 27–30 vs Vikings 21% −21
22 Texans L 27–32 vs Titans 50% −50
23 Cardinals L 6–16 @ Seahawks 61% −61
24 Raiders L 19–29 vs Broncos 69% −69
25 Steelers L 19–24 @ Browns 72% −72
26 Commanders L 26–34 vs Cowboys 81% −81