luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 21, 2024

Steelers at Browns, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 24–19, but the Steelers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:28 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 37 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 19
Cleveland Browns 24

November 21, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3.5

Luck index +72 Browns very lucky · −72 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 7, Browns win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 30 CLE 3
  2. 2 PIT 36 CLE 17
  3. 3 PIT 27 CLE 12
  4. 4 PIT 28 CLE 17
  5. 5 PIT 14 CLE 7
  6. 6 PIT 17 CLE 13
  7. 7 PIT 27 CLE 24
  8. 8 PIT 7 CLE 10
  9. 9 PIT 19 CLE 26
  10. 10 PIT 6 CLE 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 72% of them, Browns 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+21.7%
Steelers by 9–1622.4%
Steelers by 1–826.2%
Level after regulation4.4%
Browns by 1–815.4%
Browns by 9–167.1%
Browns by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Browns by 5, without the luck Browns by 9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 58 yds missed · 57% expected
  • C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 34 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 39 yards, Browns 8 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:17 False Start on the Steelers (Darnell Washington), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +1.1 pts
Q1 8:28 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q1 7:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Damontae Kazee), 15 yards +1% CLE +1.3 pts
Q1 7:35 False Start on the Steelers (Connor Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 11:08 False Start on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CLE +0.4 pts
Q2 1:36 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q4 10:10 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Jordan Hicks), 15 yards +4% PIT +2.7 pts
Q4 9:27 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.8 pts
Q4 8:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 4 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 6:09 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 4 yards +1% CLE +0.2 pts
Q4 5:28 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.5 pts
Q4 2:00 Illegal Touch Pass on the Browns, 4 yards +2% PIT +1.0 pts
Q4 1:55 Defensive Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.5 pts
Q4 0:57 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT 0.0 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:30 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +10% CLE PIT: Field goal
2 Q2 13:35 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +16% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q3 7:22 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q4 6:20 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +16% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:28 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +37% PIT CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:36 The Browns converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +16% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:55 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedDefensive Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:06 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +25% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 11% · Browns 89%

Final margin
Browns by 5
Luck in points
4.0 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 72% · Browns 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Steelers · Browns

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