Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024
Broncos at Raiders, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Raiders 29–19, but the Raiders played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Broncos.
The Broncos won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Broncos were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:33 left): the Raiders converted 4th & 4, worth 11 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Final
 Denver Broncos | 29 |
|---|---|
 Las Vegas Raiders | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Broncos very lucky · −69 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Broncos win 3, Raiders win 7.
- 1 DEN 36 LV 20
- 2 DEN 27 LV 19
- 3 DEN 20 LV 17
- 4 DEN 18 LV 21
- 5 DEN 10 LV 14
- 6 DEN 17 LV 24
- 7 DEN 3 LV 14
- 8 DEN 14 LV 29
- 9 DEN 13 LV 33
- 10 DEN 0 LV 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Broncos won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
43 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.04 | better by 0.03 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.16 | +0.06 | better by 0.21 |
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | −0.16 | +0.01 | worse by 0.17 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.09 | better by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Broncos win 31% of them, Raiders 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Broncos by 17+ | 3.7% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 7.9% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 16.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 25.8% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Raiders by 17+ | 22.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Lutz, 38 yds made · 90% expected
- W. Lutz, 53 yds made · 67% expected
- D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- W. Lutz, 54 yds made · 66% expected
- D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 81% expected
- D. Carlson, 53 yds made · 74% expected
- D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 100% expected
- W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Broncos 6 for 58 yards, Raiders 4 for 44 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:24 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% LV +2.1 pts |
| Q1 8:34 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 7 yards | +2% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:14 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LV +1.8 pts |
| Q1 3:22 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:53 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% DEN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 17 yards | +7% DEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:43 | Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 6 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 10:41 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 22 yards | +9% LV +2.4 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards | +4% DEN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.2 pts |
Broncos penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Raiders’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:30 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +10% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:03 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +10% LV | DEN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 8:33 | The Raiders converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +11% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 12:10 | W. Lutz made 45-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 35 of 51 from 45+ before | +10% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 10:41 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 22 yardsJudgment calls | +9% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 9:04 | D. Carlson made 53-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 46 of 58 from 45+ before | +10% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 6:19 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +8% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:28 | The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% DEN | LV: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Christian Wilkins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Andre James (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
- Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Luke Masterson (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Alexander Mattison (LV RB), out · 0.2 pts
- Zach Allen (DEN DE), out · 1.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Broncos 95% · Raiders 5%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 11.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Broncos 31% · Raiders 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · 
Broncos · 
Raiders
More from Week 12 2024
- Steelers at Browns CLE 24–19 · replay 28% for the winner
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 34–26 · replay 19% for the winner
- Lions at Colts DET 24–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Panthers KC 30–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 30–27 · replay 79% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 34–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 30–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 32–27 · replay 50% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 16–6 · replay 39% for the winner
- 49ers at Packers GB 38–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Eagles at Rams PHI 37–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ravens at Chargers BAL 30–23 · replay 92% for the winner