luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 25, 2024

Ravens at Chargers, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Chargers 30–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:43 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 30
Los Angeles Chargers 23

November 25, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +8 Ravens about even · −8 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Chargers win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 45 LAC 17
  2. 2 BAL 37 LAC 13
  3. 3 BAL 31 LAC 11
  4. 4 BAL 29 LAC 13
  5. 5 BAL 27 LAC 14
  6. 6 BAL 21 LAC 10
  7. 7 BAL 23 LAC 16
  8. 8 BAL 24 LAC 19
  9. 9 BAL 30 LAC 27
  10. 10 BAL 21 LAC 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 92% of them, Chargers 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+44.3%
Ravens by 9–1627.6%
Ravens by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation1.4%
Chargers by 1–85.8%
Chargers by 9–161.5%
Chargers by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Ravens by 7, without the luck Ravens by 9.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Dicker, 52 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Tucker, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Dicker, 52 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 9 for 102 yards, Chargers 7 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% LAC +2.7 pts
Q1 5:02 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +3% BAL +1.6 pts
Q1 3:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 15 yards +4% LAC +1.2 pts
Q1 3:03 False Start on the Chargers (Tuli Tuipulotu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 8:00 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% LAC +1.9 pts
Q2 5:09 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +7% BAL +2.0 pts
Q2 0:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Kristian Fulton), 12 yards +4% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 6:54 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +7% BAL +1.5 pts
Q3 1:56 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q4 7:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 15 yards +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q4 3:27 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% LAC +1.6 pts
Q4 3:08 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.4 pts
Q4 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% BAL +2.0 pts
Q4 1:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 12 yards 0% LAC +2.1 pts
Q4 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jalyn Armour-Davis), 15 yards +1% LAC +3.1 pts
Q4 0:46 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:47 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q3 5:43 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% LAC LAC: Field goal
4 Q3 4:12 C. Dicker made 52-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 26 of 30 from 45+ before +8% LAC LAC: Punt
5 Q3 2:38 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 15:00 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:36 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:56 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedQ. Johnston dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 69 catchable balls before this +10% BAL LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cam Hart (LAC CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Simi Fehoko (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Roquan Smith (BAL LB), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 89% · Chargers 11%

Final margin
Ravens by 7
Luck in points
2.6 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 92% · Chargers 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Ravens · Chargers

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