2024 season · final

Chicago Bears, 2024: game by game

The Bears went 5–12 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–7.

Every game

How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Titans	W 24–17	22%	+78
Week 2	@ Texans	L 13–19	51%	−51
Week 3	@ Colts	L 16–21	30%	−30
Week 4	vs Rams	W 24–18	28%	+72
Week 5	vs Panthers	W 36–10	96%	+4
Week 6	vs Jaguars	W 35–16	93%	+7
Week 8	@ Commanders	L 15–18	4%	−4
Week 9	@ Cardinals	L 9–29	10%	−10
Week 10	vs Patriots	L 3–19	23%	−23
Week 11	vs Packers	L 19–20	11%	−11
Week 12	vs Vikings	L 27–30	21%	−21
Week 13	@ Lions	L 20–23	14%	−14
Week 14	@ 49ers	L 13–38	1%	−1
Week 15	@ Vikings	L 12–30	16%	−16
Week 16	vs Lions	L 17–34	2%	−2
Week 17	vs Seahawks	L 3–6	16%	−16
Week 18	@ Packers	W 24–22	3%	+97

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +78 vs TEN

Wk 2 −51 @ HOU

Wk 3 −30 @ IND

Wk 4 +72 vs LA

Wk 5 +4 vs CAR

Wk 6 +7 vs JAX

Wk 8 −4 @ WAS

Wk 9 −10 @ ARI

Wk 10 −23 vs NE

Wk 11 −11 vs GB

Wk 12 −21 vs MIN

Wk 13 −14 @ DET

Wk 14 −1 @ SF

Wk 15 −16 @ MIN

Wk 16 −2 vs DET

Wk 17 −16 vs SEA

Wk 18 +97 @ GB

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bears’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.32	+11.6
3rd & 4th downs	+0.29	+5.5
Kicks	+0.08	−4.9
Rest	+0.03	+1.0
Drops	−0.23	−3.6
Judgment calls	−0.33	+13.8