luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Bears at Packers, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bears stole one. They beat the Packers 24–22, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Packers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): C. Santos made 51-yard field goal, worth 39 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 24
Green Bay Packers 22

January 5, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −10

Luck index +97 Bears very lucky · −97 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 0, Packers win 10.

  1. 1 CHI 33 GB 35
  2. 2 CHI 27 GB 33
  3. 3 CHI 20 GB 30
  4. 4 CHI 10 GB 23
  5. 5 CHI 3 GB 19
  6. 6 CHI 13 GB 33
  7. 7 CHI 10 GB 33
  8. 8 CHI 10 GB 37
  9. 9 CHI 3 GB 34
  10. 10 CHI 0 GB 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 3% of them, Packers 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.1%
Bears by 9–160.4%
Bears by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.6%
Packers by 1–87.4%
Packers by 9–1615.8%
Packers by 17+74.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.1 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 2, without the luck Packers by 5.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. McManus, 55 yds made · 56% expected
  • C. Santos, 51 yds made · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 7 for 45 yards, Packers 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +1% CHI +0.9 pts
Q1 5:50 Encroachment on the Bears (Jonathan Ford), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.5 pts
Q1 0:41 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 13:23 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.2 pts
Q2 12:19 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% CHI +1.9 pts
Q2 0:50 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.3 pts
Q3 6:57 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% GB +1.5 pts
Q4 10:02 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Carrington Valentine), 5 yards +1% CHI 0.0 pts
Q4 5:53 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CHI +2.0 pts
Q4 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Gerald Everett), 10 yards +6% GB +1.1 pts
Q4 0:48 Horse Collar Tackle on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 15 yards, wiping out the play +20% CHI +0.7 pts
Q4 0:20 Illegal Shift on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +38% GB +1.7 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:52 Return touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams +17% CHI CHI: Opp touchdown
2 Q3 11:03 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% GB GB: Turnover
3 Q4 4:44 The Packers converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +14% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:55 The Bears fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% GB CHI: Field goal
5 Q4 0:48 Horse Collar Tackle on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1897 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +20% CHI CHI: Field goal
6 Q4 0:20 Illegal Shift on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 5789 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +38% GB –
7 Q4 0:15 The Bears converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +32% CHI CHI: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 C. Santos made 51-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 37 of 51 from 45+ before +39% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Williams (GB SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Bates (CHI C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Elijah Hicks (CHI FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 25% · Packers 75%

Final margin
Bears by 2
Luck in points
7.1 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Bears 3% · Packers 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Bears · Packers

More from Week 18 2024