luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · January 4, 2025–January 5

Week 18 2024: who deserved to win

5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Packers 24–22 in a game they win 3% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 18 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bears 24–22 @ Packers 23% 3% Lucky
Panthers 44–38 @ Falcons 29% 5% Lucky
Patriots 23–16 vs Bills 41% 26% Lucky
Texans 23–14 @ Titans 43% 76% Deserved

Week 18 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 24–22 @ Packers 3% +97
2 Panthers W 44–38 @ Falcons 5% +95
3 Patriots W 23–16 vs Bills 26% +74
4 Seahawks W 30–25 @ Rams 42% +58
5 Commanders W 23–19 @ Cowboys 49% +51
6 Texans W 23–14 @ Titans 76% +24
7 Cardinals W 47–24 vs 49ers 81% +19
8 Eagles W 20–13 vs Giants 82% +18
9 Buccaneers W 27–19 vs Saints 86% +14
10 Chargers W 34–20 @ Raiders 87% +13
11 Colts W 26–23 vs Jaguars 88% +12
12 Bengals W 19–17 @ Steelers 89% +11
13 Lions W 31–9 vs Vikings 92% +8
14 Broncos W 38–0 vs Chiefs 98% +2
15 Ravens W 35–10 vs Browns 99% +1
16 Jets W 32–20 vs Dolphins 99% +1
17 Dolphins L 20–32 @ Jets 1% −1
18 Browns L 10–35 @ Ravens 1% −1
19 Chiefs L 0–38 @ Broncos 2% −2
20 Vikings L 9–31 @ Lions 8% −8
21 Steelers L 17–19 vs Bengals 11% −11
22 Jaguars L 23–26 @ Colts 12% −12
23 Raiders L 20–34 vs Chargers 13% −13
24 Saints L 19–27 @ Buccaneers 14% −14
25 Giants L 13–20 @ Eagles 18% −18
26 49ers L 24–47 @ Cardinals 19% −19
27 Titans L 14–23 vs Texans 24% −24
28 Cowboys L 19–23 vs Commanders 51% −51
29 Rams L 25–30 vs Seahawks 58% −58
30 Bills L 16–23 @ Patriots 74% −74
31 Falcons L 38–44 vs Panthers 95% −95
32 Packers L 22–24 vs Bears 97% −97