luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Chargers at Raiders, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 34–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:13 left): C. Dicker made 20-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 34
Las Vegas Raiders 20

January 5, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −7

Luck index +13 Chargers about even · −13 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 LAC 34 LV 3
  2. 2 LAC 27 LV 3
  3. 3 LAC 27 LV 7
  4. 4 LAC 33 LV 17
  5. 5 LAC 23 LV 10
  6. 6 LAC 27 LV 17
  7. 7 LAC 25 LV 17
  8. 8 LAC 16 LV 10
  9. 9 LAC 30 LV 27
  10. 10 LAC 16 LV 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 87% of them, Raiders 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+41.6%
Chargers by 9–1625.0%
Chargers by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Raiders by 1–88.4%
Raiders by 9–163.0%
Raiders by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Chargers by 14, without the luck Chargers by 16.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 51 yds missed · 79% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 49 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. Dicker, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 7 for 40 yards, Raiders 3 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:18 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 10 yards +5% LAC +2.4 pts
Q2 14:31 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.2 pts
Q2 8:48 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Jonah Laulu), 5 yards +3% LAC +1.0 pts
Q2 6:22 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% LV +4.1 pts
Q2 6:22 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.6 pts
Q3 10:01 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.6 pts
Q3 9:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 13 yards +6% LAC +2.7 pts
Q3 6:21 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Teair Tart), 5 yards +1% LV +0.1 pts
Q3 2:15 False Start on the Chargers (Scott Matlock), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.7 pts
Q4 12:41 Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Derwin James), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% LV +1.0 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:27 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% LAC LAC: Missed field goal
2 Q1 5:59 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% LV LAC: Missed field goal
3 Q1 5:08 C. Dicker missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 30 of 34 from 45+ before +10% LV LAC: Field goal
4 Q2 10:15 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% LAC LAC: Field goal
5 Q2 6:22 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +15% LV LV: Punt
6 Q2 0:44 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% LAC LV: End of half
7 Q3 9:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 85 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +6% LAC LAC: Field goal
8 Q3 7:13 C. Dicker made 20-yard field goalKicks · 100% expected for him +17% LV LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 99% · Raiders 1%

Final margin
Chargers by 14
Luck in points
2.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 16.4
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 87% · Raiders 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Chargers · Raiders

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