luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Dolphins at Jets, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Dolphins 32–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 10 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: drops alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

An off day for the Dolphins: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jets were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:55 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 12, worth 24 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Miami Dolphins 20
New York Jets 32

January 5, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −1.5

Luck index +1 Jets about even · −1 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 0, Jets win 10.

  1. 1 MIA 21 NYJ 24
  2. 2 MIA 27 NYJ 34
  3. 3 MIA 14 NYJ 25
  4. 4 MIA 15 NYJ 30
  5. 5 MIA 13 NYJ 31
  6. 6 MIA 12 NYJ 33
  7. 7 MIA 24 NYJ 47
  8. 8 MIA 24 NYJ 51
  9. 9 MIA 13 NYJ 44
  10. 10 MIA 3 NYJ 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Dolphins

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

36 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.10 better by 0.03
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.07 worse by 0.09
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.02 better by 0.13
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.05 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 1% of them, Jets 99%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.1%
Dolphins by 9–160.2%
Dolphins by 1–80.9%
Level after regulation0.2%
Jets by 1–83.5%
Jets by 9–1612.0%
Jets by 17+83.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Jets by 12, without the luck Jets by 13.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Joseph, 20 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 4 for 32 yards, Jets 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:09 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.4 pts
Q1 2:51 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q2 14:13 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.4 pts
Q2 7:57 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Jets, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA 0.0 pts
Q2 0:33 Illegal Forward Pass on the Jets (Ashtyn Davis), 5 yards +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Low Block on the Jets, 15 yards +1% MIA +1.4 pts
Q3 11:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.4 pts
Q3 7:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 12 yards +1% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q3 0:36 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q4 0:36 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYJ +1.6 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:15 The Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% MIA NYJ: Punt
2 Q2 7:16 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% NYJ MIA: Turnover
3 Q2 3:20 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% MIA NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:00 The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MIA MIA: Turnover
5 Q2 1:55 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% NYJ MIA: Turnover
6 Q4 12:06 The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:21 G. Wilson dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 323 catchable balls before this +7% MIA NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:33 The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sauce Gardner (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Morgan Moses (NYJ T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Olumuyiwa Fashanu (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 7.8 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kendall Lamm (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Walker (MIA LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Jets 100%

Final margin
Jets by 12
Luck in points
1.8 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 13.8
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 1% · Jets 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Dolphins · Jets

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