luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Vikings at Lions, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Vikings 31–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:06 left): the Vikings were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 16 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 9
Detroit Lions 31

January 5, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −3

Luck index +8 Lions about even · −8 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 1, Lions win 9.

  1. 1 MIN 24 DET 17
  2. 2 MIN 20 DET 23
  3. 3 MIN 31 DET 36
  4. 4 MIN 14 DET 22
  5. 5 MIN 23 DET 34
  6. 6 MIN 16 DET 30
  7. 7 MIN 19 DET 37
  8. 8 MIN 17 DET 38
  9. 9 MIN 13 DET 38
  10. 10 MIN 3 DET 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 8% of them, Lions 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+0.4%
Vikings by 9–162.1%
Vikings by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation0.9%
Lions by 1–815.3%
Lions by 9–1620.8%
Lions by 17+55.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Lions by 22, without the luck Lions by 23.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Reichard, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Bates, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • W. Reichard, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • W. Reichard, 51 yds missed · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 6 for 30 yards, Lions 8 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:34 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q1 3:41 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +10% MIN +2.0 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 1:23 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Pat O'Connor), 5 yards +2% MIN +1.1 pts
Q2 0:20 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Vikings (Will Reichard), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DET 0.0 pts
Q3 14:34 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Brian Branch), 5 yards +6% MIN +0.8 pts
Q3 10:51 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Sam Darnold), 13 yards +5% DET +1.0 pts
Q3 7:20 False Start on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.3 pts
Q4 11:57 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 5 yards +1% MIN +1.3 pts
Q4 5:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 2 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +2.9 pts
Q4 4:35 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 4:30 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Kindle Vildor), 5 yards 0% MIN +0.8 pts
Q4 4:13 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.3 pts
Q4 4:09 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Brock Wright), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIN +2.6 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:41 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yardsJudgment calls +10% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q1 2:25 The Lions converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:44 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 7:03 The Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% MIN DET: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 2:14 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
6 Q3 12:06 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +16% DET MIN: Field goal
7 Q3 10:04 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedJ. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 341 catchable balls before this +13% DET MIN: Field goal
8 Q3 2:33 The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +10% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Alim McNeill (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Malcolm Rodriguez (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 22
Luck in points
1.5 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 23.5
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 8% · Lions 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Vikings · Lions

More from Week 18 2024