luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Jaguars at Colts, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jaguars 26–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 31 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Colts were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 5:27 left): M. Gay made 38-yard field goal, worth 34 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final (OT)

Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Indianapolis Colts 26

January 5, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3.5

Luck index +12 Colts about even · −12 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 23 IND 17
  2. 2 JAX 17 IND 20
  3. 3 JAX 16 IND 20
  4. 4 JAX 16 IND 23
  5. 5 JAX 14 IND 23
  6. 6 JAX 24 IND 36
  7. 7 JAX 17 IND 32
  8. 8 JAX 23 IND 42
  9. 9 JAX 19 IND 41
  10. 10 JAX 16 IND 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 12% of them, Colts 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+1.0%
Jaguars by 9–163.0%
Jaguars by 1–86.8%
Level after regulation2.0%
Colts by 1–816.9%
Colts by 9–1624.1%
Colts by 17+46.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 3, without the luck Colts by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • M. Gay, 49 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Little, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Gay, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • M. Gay, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Little, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • M. Gay, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 4 for 57 yards, Colts 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:39 Encroachment on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.8 pts
Q1 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% IND +2.6 pts
Q2 0:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Deantre Prince), 37 yards +8% IND +3.2 pts
Q3 10:03 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Colts (Ashton Dulin), 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +1.7 pts
Q4 10:15 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 7:57 False Start on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 3:57 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% JAX +1.0 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q4 10:12 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q4 2:00 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q4 0:28 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% JAX IND: Punt
5 QOT 9:49 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +23% IND IND: Field goal
6 QOT 5:27 M. Gay made 38-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +34% JAX –
7 QOT 4:02 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +19% IND JAX: Turnover on downs
8 QOT 3:20 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 223rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +16% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braden Smith (IND T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Dalton Tucker (IND G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out (IR), replaced by m.jones · 4.3 pts
  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Hines-Allen (JAX DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Walker Little (JAX T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ronald Darby (JAX CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 13% · Colts 87%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
0.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 12% · Colts 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Jaguars · Colts

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