luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2024: game by game

The Jaguars went 4–13 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.4 wins. Luck cost them 1.4: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–10.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Dolphins L 17–20 20% −20
Week 2 vs Browns L 13–18 91% −91
Week 3 @ Bills L 10–47 1% −1
Week 4 @ Texans L 20–24 24% −24
Week 5 vs Colts W 37–34 26% +74
Week 6 @ Bears L 16–35 7% −7
Week 7 vs Patriots W 32–16 88% +12
Week 8 vs Packers L 27–30 11% −11
Week 9 @ Eagles L 23–28 40% −40
Week 10 vs Vikings L 7–12 16% −16
Week 11 @ Lions L 6–52 0% 0
Week 13 vs Texans L 20–23 19% −19
Week 14 @ Titans W 10–6 72% +28
Week 15 vs Jets L 25–32 26% −26
Week 16 @ Raiders L 14–19 20% −20
Week 17 vs Titans W 20–13 61% +39
Week 18 @ Colts L 23–26 12% −12

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.40+10.6
Fumble bounces+0.15−1.6
Rest+0.02+0.8
Drops−0.17−2.0
3rd & 4th downs−0.25−6.9
Judgment calls−0.34−2.4
Injuries−0.66−25.4