luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 23, 2024

Jaguars at Bills, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jaguars 47–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:01 left): the Bills converted 4th & 3, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 10
Buffalo Bills 47

September 23, 2024 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −4

Luck index +1 Bills about even · −1 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 JAX 20 BUF 23
  2. 2 JAX 26 BUF 33
  3. 3 JAX 13 BUF 24
  4. 4 JAX 23 BUF 37
  5. 5 JAX 13 BUF 31
  6. 6 JAX 10 BUF 30
  7. 7 JAX 6 BUF 30
  8. 8 JAX 6 BUF 33
  9. 9 JAX 20 BUF 51
  10. 10 JAX 3 BUF 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 1% of them, Bills 99%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.1%
Jaguars by 9–160.1%
Jaguars by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.5%
Bills by 1–84.7%
Bills by 9–1615.0%
Bills by 17+78.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.1 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 37, without the luck Bills by 30.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • T. Bass, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • T. Bass, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 7 for 45 yards, Bills 6 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:49 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bills, 5 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 12:19 Defensive Offside on the Bills (DaQuan Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.1 pts
Q2 11:57 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 1:12 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q2 0:41 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Arik Armstead), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 0:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Daniel Thomas), 15 yards 0% BUF +2.0 pts
Q3 11:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Damar Hamlin), 7 yards 0% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 14:24 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 14:13 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.2 pts
Q4 12:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards 0% JAX +1.4 pts
Q4 9:58 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q4 2:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 10 yards 0% JAX +1.7 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.6 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:01 The Bills converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +12% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:21 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:57 B. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 7 catchable balls before this +4% BUF JAX: Punt
4 Q1 7:11 The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:34 The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:43 C. Little made 41-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +4% JAX JAX: Turnover
7 Q2 7:08 The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:11 The Bills converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 37
Luck in points
6.1 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 30.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 1% · Bills 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Jaguars · Bills

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