luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 23, 2024

Commanders at Bengals, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders stole one. They beat the Bengals 38–33, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:42 left): the Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 13 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 38
Cincinnati Bengals 33

September 23, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −7.5

Luck index +82 Commanders very lucky · −82 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 2, Bengals win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 17 CIN 6
  2. 2 WAS 13 CIN 10
  3. 3 WAS 14 CIN 16
  4. 4 WAS 24 CIN 27
  5. 5 WAS 13 CIN 19
  6. 6 WAS 7 CIN 15
  7. 7 WAS 17 CIN 28
  8. 8 WAS 10 CIN 24
  9. 9 WAS 24 CIN 42
  10. 10 WAS 6 CIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 18% of them, Bengals 82%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+1.4%
Commanders by 9–164.5%
Commanders by 1–810.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Bengals by 1–828.6%
Bengals by 9–1623.6%
Bengals by 17+28.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 5, without the luck Commanders by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 48 yds missed · 80% expected
  • E. McPherson, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 42 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 3 for 28 yards, Bengals 5 for 16 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:54 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q1 5:50 Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Germaine Pratt), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q3 12:18 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 3:03 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q4 9:42 False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q4 6:38 False Start on the Commanders (Dyami Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.5 pts
Q4 0:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 18 yards +3% CIN +2.6 pts
Q4 0:40 Illegal Formation on the Bengals (Andrei Iosivas), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.5 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:24 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% CIN WAS: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:39 The Commanders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +13% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:12 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
4 Q2 14:56 E. McPherson missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 39 of 50 from 45+ before +5% WAS CIN: Field goal
5 Q2 0:30 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% WAS CIN: Field goal
6 Q4 9:42 The Bengals’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 3502 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +13% WAS CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:26 The Commanders converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:15 The Commanders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • B.J. Hill (CIN DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brad Robbins (CIN P), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (WAS DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Emmanuel Forbes (WAS CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 60% · Bengals 40%

Final margin
Commanders by 5
Luck in points
3.6 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 18% · Bengals 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Commanders · Bengals

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