luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · September 19, 2024–September 23

Week 3 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Commanders beat the Bengals 38–33 in a game they win 18% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 3 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 8 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Commanders 38–33 @ Bengals 29% 18% Lucky
Giants 21–15 @ Browns 32% 80% Deserved
Broncos 26–7 @ Buccaneers 33% 55% Coin flip
Rams 27–24 vs 49ers 33% 30% Lucky
Panthers 36–22 @ Raiders 34% 49% Coin flip
Packers 30–14 @ Titans 41% 86% Deserved
Eagles 15–12 @ Saints 43% 90% Deserved
Vikings 34–7 vs Texans 44% 84% Deserved

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Commanders W 38–33 @ Bengals 18% +82
2 Rams W 27–24 vs 49ers 30% +70
3 Panthers W 36–22 @ Raiders 49% +51
4 Broncos W 26–7 @ Buccaneers 55% +45
5 Seahawks W 24–3 vs Dolphins 58% +42
6 Colts W 21–16 vs Bears 70% +30
7 Lions W 20–13 @ Cardinals 75% +25
8 Giants W 21–15 @ Browns 80% +20
9 Chiefs W 22–17 @ Falcons 81% +19
10 Vikings W 34–7 vs Texans 84% +16
11 Steelers W 20–10 vs Chargers 86% +14
12 Packers W 30–14 @ Titans 86% +14
13 Jets W 24–3 vs Patriots 88% +12
14 Eagles W 15–12 @ Saints 90% +10
15 Ravens W 28–25 @ Cowboys 94% +6
16 Bills W 47–10 vs Jaguars 99% +1
17 Jaguars L 10–47 @ Bills 1% −1
18 Cowboys L 25–28 vs Ravens 6% −6
19 Saints L 12–15 vs Eagles 10% −10
20 Patriots L 3–24 @ Jets 12% −12
21 Titans L 14–30 vs Packers 14% −14
22 Chargers L 10–20 @ Steelers 14% −14
23 Texans L 7–34 @ Vikings 16% −16
24 Falcons L 17–22 vs Chiefs 19% −19
25 Browns L 15–21 vs Giants 20% −20
26 Cardinals L 13–20 vs Lions 25% −25
27 Bears L 16–21 @ Colts 30% −30
28 Dolphins L 3–24 @ Seahawks 42% −42
29 Buccaneers L 7–26 vs Broncos 45% −45
30 Raiders L 22–36 vs Panthers 51% −51
31 49ers L 24–27 @ Rams 70% −70
32 Bengals L 33–38 vs Commanders 82% −82