luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · September 26, 2024–September 30

Week 4 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Rams 24–18 in a game they win 28% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 4 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Broncos 10–9 @ Jets 29% 52% Coin flip
Commanders 42–14 @ Cardinals 40% 94% Deserved
Vikings 31–29 @ Packers 43% 72% Deserved
Colts 27–24 vs Steelers 43% 66% Deserved
Raiders 20–16 vs Browns 43% 65% Deserved
Titans 31–12 @ Dolphins 43% 48% Coin flip
Buccaneers 33–16 vs Eagles 47% 85% Deserved

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 24–18 vs Rams 28% +72
2 Falcons W 26–24 vs Saints 30% +70
3 Titans W 31–12 @ Dolphins 48% +52
4 Broncos W 10–9 @ Jets 52% +48
5 Raiders W 20–16 vs Browns 65% +35
6 Colts W 27–24 vs Steelers 66% +34
7 Vikings W 31–29 @ Packers 72% +28
8 Texans W 24–20 vs Jaguars 76% +24
9 Bengals W 34–24 @ Panthers 78% +22
10 Lions W 42–29 vs Seahawks 79% +21
11 Buccaneers W 33–16 vs Eagles 85% +15
12 Cowboys W 20–15 @ Giants 91% +9
13 Ravens W 35–10 vs Bills 93% +7
14 Commanders W 42–14 @ Cardinals 94% +6
15 Chiefs W 17–10 @ Chargers 96% +4
16 49ers W 30–13 vs Patriots 99% +1
17 Patriots L 13–30 @ 49ers 1% −1
18 Chargers L 10–17 vs Chiefs 4% −4
19 Cardinals L 14–42 vs Commanders 6% −6
20 Bills L 10–35 @ Ravens 7% −7
21 Giants L 15–20 vs Cowboys 9% −9
22 Eagles L 16–33 @ Buccaneers 15% −15
23 Seahawks L 29–42 @ Lions 21% −21
24 Panthers L 24–34 vs Bengals 22% −22
25 Jaguars L 20–24 @ Texans 24% −24
26 Packers L 29–31 vs Vikings 28% −28
27 Steelers L 24–27 @ Colts 34% −34
28 Browns L 16–20 @ Raiders 35% −35
29 Jets L 9–10 vs Broncos 48% −48
30 Dolphins L 12–31 vs Titans 52% −52
31 Saints L 24–26 @ Falcons 70% −70
32 Rams L 18–24 @ Bears 72% −72