luckadjusted

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Vikings at Packers, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 31–29 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:43 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 14, worth 13 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 31
Green Bay Packers 29

September 29, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −2.5

Luck index +28 Vikings lucky · −28 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 7, Packers win 3.

  1. 1 MIN 47 GB 18
  2. 2 MIN 48 GB 26
  3. 3 MIN 40 GB 23
  4. 4 MIN 34 GB 21
  5. 5 MIN 37 GB 27
  6. 6 MIN 54 GB 49
  7. 7 MIN 40 GB 38
  8. 8 MIN 23 GB 26
  9. 9 MIN 29 GB 37
  10. 10 MIN 20 GB 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 72% of them, Packers 28%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+31.8%
Vikings by 9–1618.1%
Vikings by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation2.2%
Packers by 1–813.2%
Packers by 9–167.8%
Packers by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.4 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 2, without the luck Packers by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Narveson, 37 yds missed · 88% expected
  • B. Narveson, 49 yds missed · 68% expected
  • W. Reichard, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 7 for 55 yards, Packers 8 for 68 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:43 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q1 6:56 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q1 6:47 Face Mask on the Packers (Edgerrin Cooper), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.8 pts
Q1 5:46 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Devonte Wyatt), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% GB +0.2 pts
Q1 4:03 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q1 2:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Eric Stokes), 12 yards +4% MIN +2.1 pts
Q1 2:25 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 2 yards +1% MIN +0.4 pts
Q2 9:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Josh Metellus), 20 yards +4% GB +2.7 pts
Q2 5:55 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +1% GB +1.5 pts
Q2 3:13 False Start on the Packers (Emanuel Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 2:52 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Jonathan Greenard), 5 yards 0% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 0:39 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Packers, 14 yards 0% MIN +1.3 pts
Q3 4:14 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Tucker Kraft), 10 yards +1% MIN +1.0 pts
Q3 2:22 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.6 pts
Q4 4:12 False Start on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:51 The Vikings got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:43 The Vikings converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedDelay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +13% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:56 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedD. Wicks dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 51 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Packers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% MIN GB: Missed field goal
4 Q1 6:52 B. Narveson missed 37-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +7% MIN GB: Turnover
5 Q1 6:47 Face Mask on the Packers (Edgerrin Cooper), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 54 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +4% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Eric Stokes), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1846 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +4% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q1 0:23 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% MIN GB: Missed field goal
8 Q4 6:20 The Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% MIN GB: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Carrington Valentine (GB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Dalton Risner (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 14% · Packers 86%

Final margin
Vikings by 2
Luck in points
9.4 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 72% · Packers 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Vikings · Packers

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