luckadjusted

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Eagles at Buccaneers, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 33–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33

September 29, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −1

Luck index +15 Buccaneers about even · −15 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 24 TB 17
  2. 2 PHI 23 TB 26
  3. 3 PHI 14 TB 20
  4. 4 PHI 14 TB 23
  5. 5 PHI 10 TB 23
  6. 6 PHI 17 TB 31
  7. 7 PHI 21 TB 38
  8. 8 PHI 13 TB 34
  9. 9 PHI 13 TB 37
  10. 10 PHI 3 TB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 15% of them, Buccaneers 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+1.0%
Eagles by 9–163.1%
Eagles by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation1.5%
Buccaneers by 1–819.5%
Buccaneers by 9–1623.1%
Buccaneers by 17+42.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.0 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 17, without the luck Buccaneers by 10. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 68% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 5 for 41 yards, Buccaneers 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:11 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q1 3:25 Encroachment on the Eagles (Moro Ojomo), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 13:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Reed Blankenship), 16 yards +1% TB +2.6 pts
Q2 10:21 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.8 pts
Q2 6:09 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Vita Vea), 5 yards 0% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 0:07 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 5 yards +1% TB +2.4 pts
Q4 14:12 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% PHI +2.1 pts
Q4 10:40 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% TB +1.3 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:03 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:03 D. Goedert dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 170 catchable balls before this +3% TB PHI: Punt
4 Q2 2:00 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q3 11:48 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 10:28 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:49 The Buccaneers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +3% PHI TB: Field goal
8 Q3 2:44 The Eagles fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TB PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jake Camarda (TB P), out · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 3% · Buccaneers 97%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 17
Luck in points
7.0 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 15% · Buccaneers 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Eagles · Buccaneers

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