2024 season · final
Seattle Seahawks, 2024: game by game
The Seahawks went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.3 wins. Luck added 1.7: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–2.
Every game
How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Broncos | W 26–20 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | @ Patriots | W 23–20 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 3 | vs Dolphins | W 24–3 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 4 | @ Lions | L 29–42 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 5 | vs Giants | L 20–29 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 6 | vs 49ers | L 24–36 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 7 | @ Falcons | W 34–14 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 8 | vs Bills | L 10–31 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 9 | vs Rams | L 20–26 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 11 | @ 49ers | W 20–17 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 12 | vs Cardinals | W 16–6 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 13 | @ Jets | W 26–21 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 14 | @ Cardinals | W 30–18 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 15 | vs Packers | L 13–30 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 16 | vs Vikings | L 24–27 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 17 | @ Bears | W 6–3 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 18 | @ Rams | W 30–25 | 42% | +58 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.47 | +12.0 |
| Injuries | +0.43 | +16.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.35 | +6.7 |
| Rest | −0.08 | −2.8 |
| Drops | −0.16 | −2.7 |
| Kicks | −0.19 | +12.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.33 | −7.9 |