luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Rams at Seahawks, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Seahawks 26–20, but the Seahawks played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Rams were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:17 left): Return touchdown by the Rams, worth 76 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Rams 26
Seattle Seahawks 20

November 3, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Rams −1.5

Luck index +62 Rams very lucky · −62 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 4, Seahawks win 6.

  1. 1 LA 44 SEA 20
  2. 2 LA 36 SEA 23
  3. 3 LA 34 SEA 27
  4. 4 LA 40 SEA 38
  5. 5 LA 24 SEA 26
  6. 6 LA 12 SEA 18
  7. 7 LA 21 SEA 31
  8. 8 LA 16 SEA 30
  9. 9 LA 11 SEA 30
  10. 10 LA 7 SEA 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 38% of them, Seahawks 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+8.3%
Rams by 9–1611.5%
Rams by 1–816.7%
Level after regulation2.6%
Seahawks by 1–820.8%
Seahawks by 9–1617.8%
Seahawks by 17+22.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 6, without the luck Rams by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Karty, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Karty, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 8 for 83 yards, Seahawks 12 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Hunter Long), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% SEA +2.0 pts
Q1 5:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Jared Verse), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q1 4:27 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% SEA +3.0 pts
Q2 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +4% LA +1.4 pts
Q2 9:40 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.2 pts
Q2 7:34 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tyler Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% SEA +3.5 pts
Q2 0:33 Disqualification on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 15 yards +6% SEA +1.1 pts
Q2 0:27 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +4% LA +0.6 pts
Q3 10:56 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards +2% LA +0.6 pts
Q3 9:41 Illegal Motion on the Rams (Colby Parkinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 9:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 13 yards +5% LA +1.9 pts
Q3 8:02 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LA +0.8 pts
Q3 7:16 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +17% LA +4.5 pts
Q3 5:26 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards +6% LA +1.4 pts
Q3 1:36 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks, 6 yards +8% LA +1.8 pts
Q4 12:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Ahkello Witherspoon), 23 yards +15% SEA +4.1 pts
Q4 3:54 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +24% LA +4.2 pts
Q4 3:47 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.2 pts
Q4 2:59 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% SEA +2.4 pts
Q4 0:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 11 yards +2% LA +0.3 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:55 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +16% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:33 The Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsDisqualification on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1123 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +13% SEA LA: End of half
3 Q3 7:16 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% LA LA: Field goal
4 Q4 12:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Ahkello Witherspoon), 23 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 3019 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +15% SEA SEA: Opp touchdown
5 Q4 11:17 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Seahawks were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +76% LA LA: Opp touchdown
6 Q4 8:52 Blocked punt by the SeahawksSpecial teams +15% SEA SEA: Turnover
7 Q4 3:54 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +24% LA LA: Punt
8 QOT 7:25 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +23% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Noah Fant (SEA TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Rayshawn Jenkins (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tre'Davious White (LA CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Steve Avila (LA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ethan Evans (LA P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 59% · Seahawks 41%

Final margin
Rams by 6
Luck in points
3.2 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Rams 38% · Seahawks 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Rams · Seahawks

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