luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · October 31, 2024

Texans at Jets, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Texans 21–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:01 left): the Jets converted 3rd & 19, worth 20 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Houston Texans 13
New York Jets 21

October 31, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2.5

Luck index +52 Jets lucky · −52 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 HOU 31 NYJ 10
  2. 2 HOU 16 NYJ 3
  3. 3 HOU 19 NYJ 10
  4. 4 HOU 13 NYJ 7
  5. 5 HOU 16 NYJ 13
  6. 6 HOU 13 NYJ 15
  7. 7 HOU 13 NYJ 17
  8. 8 HOU 35 NYJ 43
  9. 9 HOU 23 NYJ 35
  10. 10 HOU 6 NYJ 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 52% of them, Jets 48%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+10.2%
Texans by 9–1614.8%
Texans by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation6.2%
Jets by 1–822.5%
Jets by 9–1613.8%
Jets by 17+9.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to the Texans: the final margin was Jets by 8, without the luck Jets by 8.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 56 yds missed · 62% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 64% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 27 yds missed · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 7 for 60 yards, Jets 9 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jamal Hill), 10 yards +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q1 14:51 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.4 pts
Q1 11:44 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q1 10:15 Roughing the Kicker on the Jets, 15 yards +11% HOU +3.7 pts
Q1 5:44 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Cade Stover), 10 yards +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q1 0:31 Face Mask on the Texans (Folorunso Fatukasi), 15 yards +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 8:21 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Robert Woods), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYJ +2.2 pts
Q2 6:55 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards +4% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:12 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.1 pts
Q3 9:03 Face Mask on the Jets (Kenny Yeboah), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 5 yards +8% NYJ +2.3 pts
Q4 13:31 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% HOU +2.1 pts
Q4 8:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 13 yards +17% HOU +2.7 pts
Q4 2:33 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q4 2:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Isaiah Oliver), 12 yards +2% HOU +2.8 pts
Q4 1:00 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 3 yards +1% HOU +0.7 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:15 Roughing the Kicker on the Jets, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% HOU HOU: Turnover
2 Q2 0:27 K. Fairbairn missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 41 of 57 from 45+ before +12% NYJ HOU: End of half
3 Q3 1:16 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +14% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:01 The Jets converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +20% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:03 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% NYJ HOU: Missed field goal
6 Q4 8:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 13 yardsJudgment calls +17% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
7 Q4 6:57 K. Fairbairn missed 27-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +19% NYJ HOU: Field goal
8 Q4 3:02 The Jets converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +13% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tony Adams (NYJ FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mario Edwards (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 14% · Jets 86%

Final margin
Jets by 8
Luck in points
0.9 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 52% · Jets 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Texans · Jets

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