luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Jaguars at Eagles, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Jaguars 28–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:26 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 21 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Philadelphia Eagles 28

November 3, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −7.5

Luck index +40 Eagles lucky · −40 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Eagles win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 38 PHI 17
  2. 2 JAX 39 PHI 26
  3. 3 JAX 21 PHI 14
  4. 4 JAX 37 PHI 34
  5. 5 JAX 22 PHI 23
  6. 6 JAX 13 PHI 17
  7. 7 JAX 19 PHI 27
  8. 8 JAX 16 PHI 28
  9. 9 JAX 13 PHI 29
  10. 10 JAX 9 PHI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 40% of them, Eagles 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+7.2%
Jaguars by 9–1613.0%
Jaguars by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.9%
Eagles by 1–824.9%
Eagles by 9–1617.5%
Eagles by 17+15.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.6 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Eagles by 5, without the luck Eagles by 12.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Elliott, 57 yds missed · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 4 for 17 yards, Eagles 8 for 67 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:40 False Start on the Eagles (Jack Stoll), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +1.3 pts
Q1 5:14 False Start on the Eagles (Saquon Barkley), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 3:14 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% JAX +1.1 pts
Q2 0:32 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Johnny Wilson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% JAX +3.4 pts
Q2 0:22 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Yasir Abdullah), 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 13:21 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 10:02 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Myles Cole), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 9:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Andre Cisco), 1 yard 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q4 8:38 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 2:25 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.3 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 18 yards +13% JAX +2.0 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:20 The Jaguars fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PHI JAX: Punt
2 Q2 4:55 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% JAX PHI: Punt
3 Q3 5:26 The Jaguars’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +21% JAX JAX: Opp touchdown
4 Q3 1:25 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% JAX PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:16 J. Elliott missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 31 of 44 from 45+ before +21% JAX PHI: End of game
6 Q4 2:05 E. Engram dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 247 catchable balls before this +16% PHI JAX: Turnover
7 Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3107 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +13% JAX JAX: Turnover
8 Q4 1:42 The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ezra Cleveland (JAX G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 5% · Eagles 95%

Final margin
Eagles by 5
Luck in points
7.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 12.6
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 40% · Eagles 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Jaguars · Eagles

More from Week 9 2024