luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Cowboys at Falcons, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Cowboys 27–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:34 left): the Falcons converted 4th & 3, worth 13 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 21
Atlanta Falcons 27

November 3, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +33 Falcons lucky · −33 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Falcons win 7.

  1. 1 DAL 43 ATL 24
  2. 2 DAL 24 ATL 16
  3. 3 DAL 23 ATL 20
  4. 4 DAL 15 ATL 17
  5. 5 DAL 20 ATL 24
  6. 6 DAL 26 ATL 34
  7. 7 DAL 13 ATL 24
  8. 8 DAL 20 ATL 35
  9. 9 DAL 14 ATL 33
  10. 10 DAL 13 ATL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 33% of them, Falcons 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+4.8%
Cowboys by 9–169.6%
Cowboys by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Falcons by 1–824.3%
Falcons by 9–1620.0%
Falcons by 17+20.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 6, without the luck Cowboys by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 57 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 9 for 55 yards, Falcons 4 for 26 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:14 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q1 5:23 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 10 yards +3% ATL +1.1 pts
Q1 2:33 False Start on the Falcons (Ray-Ray McCloud), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 9:21 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% DAL +2.9 pts
Q2 6:26 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 5:33 Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons (Zach Harrison), 1 yard +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 5:13 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 9:30 False Start on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 8:07 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +1.0 pts
Q3 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +3% ATL +1.5 pts
Q4 9:43 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 5:58 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:08 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% ATL ATL: Turnover
2 Q2 14:25 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% DAL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:26 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +8% ATL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:21 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:34 The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q2 3:55 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ATL ATL: Punt
7 Q2 2:27 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% ATL ATL: Punt
8 Q3 13:15 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +9% ATL DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL DE), out · 1.4 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 38% · Falcons 62%

Final margin
Falcons by 6
Luck in points
6.3 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 33% · Falcons 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Cowboys · Falcons

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