Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024
Chargers at Browns, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?
The Chargers beat the Browns 27–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.
An off day for the Browns: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chargers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:10 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 6, worth 18 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 27 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Chargers about even · −8 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Browns win 1.
- 1 LAC 40 CLE 7
- 2 LAC 24 CLE 0
- 3 LAC 20 CLE 0
- 4 LAC 21 CLE 3
- 5 LAC 27 CLE 13
- 6 LAC 31 CLE 19
- 7 LAC 14 CLE 5
- 8 LAC 12 CLE 6
- 9 LAC 16 CLE 14
- 10 LAC 10 CLE 19
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Browns
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.04 | better by 0.07 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.06 | better by 0.20 |
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | −0.00 | worse by 0.14 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.03 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 92% of them, Browns 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 57.7% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 19.6% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 5.5% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Browns by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 38 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Dicker, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
- D. Hopkins, 51 yds blocked · 68% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Chargers 5 for 35 yards, Browns 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:47 | False Start on the Browns (David Njoku), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +1.3 pts |
| Q1 9:55 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CLE +1.9 pts |
| Q1 8:50 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:19 | Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Daiyan Henley), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% LAC +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:29 | Illegal Motion on the Browns (Jerry Jeudy), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% LAC +3.1 pts |
| Q2 0:02 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLE +0.1 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% LAC +2.0 pts |
| Q3 9:08 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.3 pts |
| Q4 10:39 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | 0% CLE +0.9 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:55 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:50 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 2292 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 | +9% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:54 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 14% expected | +13% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:36 | The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:16 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +4% LAC | CLE: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 9:33 | D. Hopkins made 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +7% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 8:10 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +18% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 7:29 | Illegal Motion on the Browns (Jerry Jeudy), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 3069 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +7% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jordan Hicks (CLE LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Kristian Fulton (LAC CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Jordan McFadden (LAC G), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 100% · Browns 0%
- Final margin
- Chargers by 17
- Luck in points
- 2.3 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 14.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 92% · Browns 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · 
Chargers · 
Browns
More from Week 9 2024
- Texans at Jets NYJ 21–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cowboys at Falcons ATL 27–21 · replay 67% for the winner
- Broncos at Ravens BAL 41–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Raiders at Bengals CIN 41–24 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 30–27 · replay 83% for the winner
- Patriots at Titans TEN 20–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 23–22 · replay 23% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants WAS 27–22 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bears at Cardinals ARI 29–9 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Eagles PHI 28–23 · replay 60% for the winner
- Lions at Packers DET 24–14 · replay 76% for the winner
- Rams at Seahawks LA 26–20 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colts at Vikings MIN 21–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Chiefs KC 30–24 · replay 53% for the winner