luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Lions at Packers, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Packers 24–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:42 left): Return touchdown by the Lions, worth 23 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 24
Green Bay Packers 14

November 3, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +24 Lions about even · −24 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 8, Packers win 2.

  1. 1 DET 41 GB 14
  2. 2 DET 19 GB 0
  3. 3 DET 21 GB 6
  4. 4 DET 26 GB 14
  5. 5 DET 29 GB 20
  6. 6 DET 17 GB 10
  7. 7 DET 34 GB 31
  8. 8 DET 17 GB 15
  9. 9 DET 17 GB 21
  10. 10 DET 14 GB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 76% of them, Packers 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+24.1%
Lions by 9–1623.0%
Lions by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation4.2%
Packers by 1–814.1%
Packers by 9–166.7%
Packers by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 10, without the luck Lions by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. McManus, 46 yds missed · 75% expected
  • J. Bates, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 38 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 4 for 36 yards, Packers 10 for 67 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 15 yards +4% DET +1.5 pts
Q1 11:04 False Start on the Packers (Josh Jacobs), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Encroachment on the Packers (Tedarrell Slaton), 2 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.1 pts
Q2 12:44 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +1.0 pts
Q2 12:17 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.6 pts
Q2 9:31 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kamal Hadden), 10 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 6:39 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DET +1.5 pts
Q2 6:18 Disqualification on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yards +9% GB +1.5 pts
Q2 6:10 False Start on the Packers (Romeo Doubs), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q3 12:57 Illegal Shift on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +1.3 pts
Q3 12:36 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards +1% DET +1.7 pts
Q3 8:11 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 6 yards +1% GB +0.4 pts
Q4 13:25 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 4:31 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (Amik Robertson), 10 yards 0% GB +1.4 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% DET GB: Field goal
2 Q1 11:46 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
3 Q1 7:14 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% DET GB: Field goal
4 Q2 15:00 The Lions converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedEncroachment on the Packers (Tedarrell Slaton), 2 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 2019 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +13% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:18 Disqualification on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1302 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +9% GB GB: Missed field goal
6 Q2 5:31 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedT. Kraft dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 68 catchable balls before this +12% DET GB: Missed field goal
7 Q2 5:28 B. McManus missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 57 of 82 from 45+ before +10% DET GB: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 0:42 The Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +23% DET GB: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Myers (GB C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jameson Williams (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 79% · Packers 21%

Final margin
Lions by 10
Luck in points
4.3 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Lions 76% · Packers 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Lions · Packers

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