Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024
Broncos at Seahawks, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Broncos 26–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 10 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:34 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Denver Broncos | 20 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Seahawks about even · −1 Broncos
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Broncos win 0, Seahawks win 10.
- 1 DEN 10 SEA 13
- 2 DEN 15 SEA 25
- 3 DEN 14 SEA 27
- 4 DEN 17 SEA 33
- 5 DEN 13 SEA 32
- 6 DEN 9 SEA 31
- 7 DEN 10 SEA 34
- 8 DEN 10 SEA 37
- 9 DEN 8 SEA 40
- 10 DEN 0 SEA 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Broncos win 1% of them, Seahawks 99%. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Broncos by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 3.4% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 10.7% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 84.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Myers, 50 yds made · 72% expected
- W. Lutz, 30 yds made · 95% expected
- W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 77% expected
- J. Myers, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Broncos 8 for 60 yards, Seahawks 6 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:40 | Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SEA +0.3 pts |
| Q1 12:31 | False Start on the Seahawks (Laviska Shenault Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 9:04 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +2% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:52 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:59 | Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 15 yards | +6% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:28 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 1 yard | +14% DEN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:15 | False Start on the Broncos (Bo Nix), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:04 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 6 yards | +2% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:10 | Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 11:43 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DEN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:10 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 14 yards | +2% SEA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 4:52 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards | +2% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:49 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% DEN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.3 pts |
Broncos penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 15:00 | The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% DEN | DEN: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 11:34 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +15% SEA | DEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 11:28 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 1 yardJudgment calls | +14% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 5:55 | The Seahawks’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +10% DEN | SEA: Safety |
| 5 | Q2 2:57 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +10% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 2:00 | The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +7% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:19 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +9% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 8:12 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% SEA | DEN: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Broncos 8% · Seahawks 92%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 6
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 8.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Broncos 1% · Seahawks 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · 
Broncos · 
Seahawks
More from Week 1 2024
- Ravens at Chiefs KC 27–20 · replay 48% for the winner
- Packers vs Eagles PHI 34–29 · replay 24% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bills BUF 34–28 · replay 92% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 47–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texans at Colts HOU 29–27 · replay 46% for the winner
- Jaguars at Dolphins MIA 20–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 28–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 16–10 · replay 47% for the winner
- Steelers at Falcons PIT 18–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Titans at Bears CHI 24–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 22–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Cowboys at Browns DAL 33–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Commanders at Buccaneers TB 37–20 · replay 69% for the winner
- Rams at Lions DET 26–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Jets at 49ers SF 32–19 · replay 98% for the winner