luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · September 5, 2024–September 9

Week 1 2024: who deserved to win

7 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Titans 24–17 in a game they win 22% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 1 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Patriots 16–10 @ Bengals 28% 47% Coin flip
Steelers 18–10 @ Falcons 38% 46% Coin flip
Cowboys 33–17 @ Browns 43% 96% Deserved

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 24–17 vs Titans 22% +78
2 Eagles W 34–29 vs Packers 24% +76
3 Chargers W 22–10 vs Raiders 46% +54
4 Texans W 29–27 @ Colts 46% +54
5 Steelers W 18–10 @ Falcons 46% +54
6 Patriots W 16–10 @ Bengals 47% +53
7 Chiefs W 27–20 vs Ravens 48% +52
8 Buccaneers W 37–20 vs Commanders 69% +31
9 Lions W 26–20 vs Rams 76% +24
10 Dolphins W 20–17 vs Jaguars 80% +20
11 Bills W 34–28 vs Cardinals 92% +8
12 Cowboys W 33–17 @ Browns 96% +4
13 Vikings W 28–6 @ Giants 96% +4
14 49ers W 32–19 vs Jets 98% +2
15 Seahawks W 26–20 vs Broncos 99% +1
16 Saints W 47–10 vs Panthers 99% +1
17 Panthers L 10–47 @ Saints 1% −1
18 Broncos L 20–26 @ Seahawks 1% −1
19 Jets L 19–32 @ 49ers 2% −2
20 Giants L 6–28 vs Vikings 4% −4
21 Browns L 17–33 vs Cowboys 4% −4
22 Cardinals L 28–34 @ Bills 8% −8
23 Jaguars L 17–20 @ Dolphins 20% −20
24 Rams L 20–26 @ Lions 24% −24
25 Commanders L 20–37 @ Buccaneers 31% −31
26 Ravens L 20–27 @ Chiefs 52% −52
27 Bengals L 10–16 vs Patriots 53% −53
28 Falcons L 10–18 vs Steelers 54% −54
29 Colts L 27–29 vs Texans 54% −54
30 Raiders L 10–22 @ Chargers 54% −54
31 Packers L 29–34 @ Eagles 76% −76
32 Titans L 17–24 @ Bears 78% −78