luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Steelers at Falcons, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Falcons 18–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:06 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Donte Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 18
Atlanta Falcons 10

September 8, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −4

Luck index +54 Steelers lucky · −54 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 5, Falcons win 5.

  1. 1 PIT 27 ATL 6
  2. 2 PIT 22 ATL 10
  3. 3 PIT 24 ATL 16
  4. 4 PIT 35 ATL 30
  5. 5 PIT 9 ATL 7
  6. 6 PIT 14 ATL 16
  7. 7 PIT 23 ATL 27
  8. 8 PIT 7 ATL 16
  9. 9 PIT 17 ATL 30
  10. 10 PIT 3 ATL 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 46% of them, Falcons 54%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+7.5%
Steelers by 9–1614.3%
Steelers by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation6.6%
Falcons by 1–822.6%
Falcons by 9–1615.9%
Falcons by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 8, without the luck Steelers by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 57 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. Boswell, 51 yds made · 78% expected
  • C. Boswell, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Boswell, 40 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 9 for 60 yards, Falcons 5 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:36 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.5 pts
Q2 5:38 False Start on the Steelers (Van Jefferson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.5 pts
Q2 5:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% ATL +3.0 pts
Q2 0:41 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +11% ATL +1.5 pts
Q3 8:50 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Eddie Goldman), 5 yards +4% PIT +0.6 pts
Q3 6:32 Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% PIT +3.2 pts
Q3 6:06 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Donte Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +19% ATL +3.9 pts
Q3 4:03 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Falcons (KhaDarel Hodge), 5 yards +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q3 2:31 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 1:30 Illegal Shift on the Steelers (Van Jefferson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% ATL +1.0 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% PIT +1.8 pts
Q4 6:36 Illegal Formation on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% PIT +1.6 pts
Q4 5:25 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Steelers (Mark Robinson), 10 yards +6% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 3:40 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Miles Killebrew), 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% ATL +1.2 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1877 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +14% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:41 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 21 flags in 4305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q3 13:44 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +10% ATL PIT: Punt
4 Q3 6:32 Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q3 6:06 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Donte Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 19 flags in 3562 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +19% ATL ATL: Punt
6 Q4 7:10 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +9% ATL PIT: Punt
7 Q4 6:36 Illegal Formation on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1936 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +10% PIT PIT: Punt
8 Q4 3:40 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Miles Killebrew), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1950 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +13% ATL ATL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 63% · Falcons 37%

Final margin
Steelers by 8
Luck in points
5.0 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 46% · Falcons 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Steelers · Falcons

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