luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 30–18 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:19 left): C. Ryland missed 40-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 30
Arizona Cardinals 18

December 8, 2024 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −3

Luck index +40 Seahawks lucky · −40 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Cardinals win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 34 ARI 10
  2. 2 SEA 30 ARI 14
  3. 3 SEA 36 ARI 24
  4. 4 SEA 30 ARI 23
  5. 5 SEA 23 ARI 19
  6. 6 SEA 26 ARI 24
  7. 7 SEA 28 ARI 31
  8. 8 SEA 19 ARI 27
  9. 9 SEA 13 ARI 27
  10. 10 SEA 20 ARI 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 60% of them, Cardinals 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+16.4%
Seahawks by 9–1616.1%
Seahawks by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation2.9%
Cardinals by 1–818.4%
Cardinals by 9–1613.3%
Cardinals by 17+7.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 12, without the luck Seahawks by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Ryland, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Myers, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Ryland, 40 yds missed · 88% expected
  • J. Myers, 35 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 9 for 62 yards, Cardinals 6 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:08 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.1 pts
Q1 5:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q1 4:07 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% SEA +2.6 pts
Q2 10:26 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 12 yards +2% ARI +0.5 pts
Q2 5:10 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% ARI +2.4 pts
Q2 4:04 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.3 pts
Q2 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +3% SEA +1.0 pts
Q3 11:24 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% SEA +2.4 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 13:39 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marvin Harrison Jr.), 9 yards +1% SEA +1.2 pts
Q4 12:05 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARI +1.4 pts
Q4 12:05 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 10:42 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.6 pts
Q4 1:56 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.5 pts
Q4 0:22 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.3 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:44 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:07 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:10 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q2 3:57 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 15:00 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedFalse Start on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% ARI SEA: Punt
6 Q4 10:38 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
7 Q4 7:26 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +6% SEA ARI: Missed field goal
8 Q4 7:19 C. Ryland missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +11% SEA ARI: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kenneth Walker III (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 76% · Cardinals 24%

Final margin
Seahawks by 12
Luck in points
6.3 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 60% · Cardinals 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Seahawks · Cardinals

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