luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · December 5, 2024–December 9

Week 14 2024: who deserved to win

1 of 13 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Bills 44–42 in a game they win 40% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 14 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rams 44–42 vs Bills 40% 40% Lucky
Jaguars 10–6 @ Titans 41% 72% Deserved
Seahawks 30–18 @ Cardinals 41% 60% Deserved

Week 14 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Rams W 44–42 vs Bills 40% +60
2 Dolphins W 32–26 vs Jets 53% +47
3 Lions W 34–31 vs Packers 60% +40
4 Seahawks W 30–18 @ Cardinals 60% +40
5 Eagles W 22–16 vs Panthers 68% +32
6 Vikings W 42–21 vs Falcons 71% +29
7 Jaguars W 10–6 @ Titans 72% +28
8 Chiefs W 19–17 vs Chargers 75% +25
9 Steelers W 27–14 vs Browns 86% +14
10 Saints W 14–11 @ Giants 89% +11
11 Bengals W 27–20 @ Cowboys 89% +11
12 Buccaneers W 28–13 vs Raiders 95% +5
13 49ers W 38–13 vs Bears 99% +1
14 Bears L 13–38 @ 49ers 1% −1
15 Raiders L 13–28 @ Buccaneers 5% −5
16 Cowboys L 20–27 vs Bengals 11% −11
17 Giants L 11–14 vs Saints 11% −11
18 Browns L 14–27 @ Steelers 14% −14
19 Chargers L 17–19 @ Chiefs 25% −25
20 Titans L 6–10 vs Jaguars 28% −28
21 Falcons L 21–42 @ Vikings 29% −29
22 Panthers L 16–22 @ Eagles 32% −32
23 Cardinals L 18–30 vs Seahawks 40% −40
24 Packers L 31–34 @ Lions 40% −40
25 Jets L 26–32 @ Dolphins 47% −47
26 Bills L 42–44 @ Rams 60% −60