luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Falcons at Vikings, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Falcons 42–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:36 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 8, worth 18 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 21
Minnesota Vikings 42

December 8, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −6

Luck index +29 Vikings lucky · −29 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Vikings win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 45 MIN 30
  2. 2 ATL 35 MIN 27
  3. 3 ATL 34 MIN 31
  4. 4 ATL 21 MIN 23
  5. 5 ATL 12 MIN 17
  6. 6 ATL 42 MIN 49
  7. 7 ATL 23 MIN 33
  8. 8 ATL 13 MIN 27
  9. 9 ATL 12 MIN 31
  10. 10 ATL 17 MIN 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 29% of them, Vikings 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+3.5%
Falcons by 9–167.6%
Falcons by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation4.3%
Vikings by 1–825.3%
Vikings by 9–1621.4%
Vikings by 17+23.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.5 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 21, without the luck Vikings by 7.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Reichard, 47 yds missed · 81% expected
  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 12 for 127 yards, Vikings 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 8:29 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.6 pts
Q2 6:32 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (C.J. Ham), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% ATL +0.8 pts
Q2 6:26 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.6 pts
Q2 4:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 47 yards +8% MIN +5.4 pts
Q2 3:30 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Kentavius Street), 5 yards +7% MIN +2.2 pts
Q2 2:01 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +4% MIN +1.6 pts
Q2 1:46 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% MIN +1.5 pts
Q3 11:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Jordan Addison), 10 yards +3% ATL +1.9 pts
Q3 7:02 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 0:39 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 0:13 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.5 pts
Q4 8:54 Illegal Shift on the Vikings (Sam Darnold), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 6:26 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Eddie Goldman), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.4 pts
Q4 5:46 False Start on the Vikings (Johnny Mundt), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +1.1 pts
Q4 4:13 Face Mask on the Falcons (Lorenzo Carter), 15 yards 0% MIN +1.3 pts
Q4 2:38 False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.4 pts
Q4 2:38 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Brian Asamoah), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.1 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.7 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:59 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% ATL ATL: Field goal
3 Q3 10:01 W. Reichard missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 5 of 6 from 45+ before +9% ATL MIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:12 The Falcons converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q3 7:45 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +12% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q3 3:36 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +18% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:39 The Falcons’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedFalse Start on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:04 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +17% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Gilmore (MIN CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (MIN LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 27% · Vikings 73%

Final margin
Vikings by 21
Luck in points
13.5 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 29% · Vikings 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Falcons · Vikings

More from Week 14 2024