luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 5, 2024

Packers at Lions, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Packers 34–31 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 4:38 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Christian Watson), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 29 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Green Bay Packers 31
Detroit Lions 34

December 5, 2024 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −3

Luck index +40 Lions lucky · −40 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 4, Lions win 6.

  1. 1 GB 27 DET 6
  2. 2 GB 33 DET 20
  3. 3 GB 20 DET 14
  4. 4 GB 30 DET 27
  5. 5 GB 35 DET 37
  6. 6 GB 20 DET 24
  7. 7 GB 27 DET 34
  8. 8 GB 16 DET 27
  9. 9 GB 24 DET 40
  10. 10 GB 5 DET 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 40% of them, Lions 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+6.6%
Packers by 9–1611.8%
Packers by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation3.3%
Lions by 1–828.2%
Lions by 9–1617.1%
Lions by 17+13.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.9 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 3, without the luck Packers by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. McManus, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Bates, 35 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 7 for 59 yards, Lions 7 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:13 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% GB +1.0 pts
Q1 9:48 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 4 yards +5% DET +2.0 pts
Q1 8:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Brian Branch), 14 yards +7% GB +1.2 pts
Q1 3:57 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.5 pts
Q1 0:43 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Robert Rochell), 10 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 14:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Quay Walker), 15 yards +4% DET +1.6 pts
Q2 10:14 Encroachment on the Lions (Pat O'Connor), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 8:52 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +3% DET +1.2 pts
Q2 6:59 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards +1% GB +0.2 pts
Q2 5:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 2 yards, wiping out the play +16% GB +3.8 pts
Q3 13:15 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% GB +1.3 pts
Q4 8:39 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.5 pts
Q4 4:38 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Christian Watson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +29% DET +3.4 pts
Q4 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +6% GB +1.3 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 672 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +16% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q3 13:20 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:05 The Lions converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +12% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:29 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +15% GB DET: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:38 The game turned hereOffensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Christian Watson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1446 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +29% DET DET: Field goal
6 Q4 2:01 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% DET DET: Field goal
7 Q4 0:43 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% DET DET: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 J. Bates made 35-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +13% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • D.J. Reader (DET NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Malcolm Rodriguez (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Edgerrin Cooper (GB LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 64% · Lions 36%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
5.9 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Packers 40% · Lions 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Packers · Lions

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