luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Saints at Giants, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Giants 14–11, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:49 left): the Giants converted 4th & 10, worth 31 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New Orleans Saints 14
New York Giants 11

December 8, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Saints −5.5

Luck index +11 Saints about even · −11 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 NO 37 NYG 6
  2. 2 NO 27 NYG 2
  3. 3 NO 23 NYG 3
  4. 4 NO 29 NYG 13
  5. 5 NO 29 NYG 16
  6. 6 NO 26 NYG 16
  7. 7 NO 20 NYG 13
  8. 8 NO 18 NYG 13
  9. 9 NO 16 NYG 14
  10. 10 NO 23 NYG 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 89% of them, Giants 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+49.8%
Saints by 9–1620.8%
Saints by 1–817.9%
Level after regulation1.7%
Giants by 1–86.6%
Giants by 9–162.7%
Giants by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 3, without the luck Giants by 7.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 53 yds missed · 63% expected
  • G. Gano, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • B. Grupe, 60 yds blocked · 51% expected
  • G. Gano, 35 yds blocked · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 6 for 40 yards, Giants 12 for 112 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:22 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% NO +1.5 pts
Q1 11:44 Intentional Grounding on the Giants (Drew Lock), 15 yards +4% NO +1.0 pts
Q1 1:19 Illegal Formation on the Saints (Nephi Sewell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.5 pts
Q2 14:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Jamaal Williams), 15 yards +2% NYG +1.0 pts
Q2 6:33 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Greg Stroman), 10 yards +1% NO +1.0 pts
Q2 4:36 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.7 pts
Q2 0:36 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NO +0.2 pts
Q2 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Tyler Nubin), 27 yards +12% NO +1.3 pts
Q3 13:25 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Brian Burns), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.3 pts
Q3 10:46 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% NYG +1.3 pts
Q3 9:33 False Start on the Giants (Malik Nabers), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 9:33 Defensive Offside on the Saints (Payton Turner), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.6 pts
Q3 8:21 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.6 pts
Q3 0:11 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NO +2.0 pts
Q4 13:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants, 15 yards +3% NO +2.0 pts
Q4 11:12 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.3 pts
Q4 2:23 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.3 pts
Q4 0:20 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NO +0.6 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:54 The Giants converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +10% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 11:44 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Giants (Drew Lock), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1597 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 +15% NO NYG: Punt
3 Q2 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Tyler Nubin), 27 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 854 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +12% NO NO: Missed field goal
4 Q4 4:11 The Giants’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Giants got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% NYG NYG: Turnover
5 Q4 2:29 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% NYG NYG: Turnover
6 Q4 1:52 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +31% NO NYG: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:49 The Giants converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +31% NYG NYG: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:11 G. Gano had a 35-yard field goal blockedKicks · 93% expected for him +27% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Theo Johnson (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chris Hubbard (NYG T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jermaine Eluemunor (NYG T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dexter Lawrence (NYG NT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cordale Flott (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bobby Okereke (NYG LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andru Phillips (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rakeem Nunez-Roches (NYG NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mason Tipton (NO WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nick Saldiveri (NO G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 26% · Giants 74%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
10.3 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Saints 89% · Giants 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Saints · Giants

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