luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Jaguars at Titans, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Titans 10–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:15 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 39 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 10
Tennessee Titans 6

December 8, 2024 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +28 Jaguars lucky · −28 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 7, Titans win 3.

  1. 1 JAX 23 TEN 0
  2. 2 JAX 23 TEN 7
  3. 3 JAX 20 TEN 7
  4. 4 JAX 10 TEN 0
  5. 5 JAX 27 TEN 20
  6. 6 JAX 20 TEN 17
  7. 7 JAX 17 TEN 15
  8. 8 JAX 17 TEN 20
  9. 9 JAX 6 TEN 13
  10. 10 JAX 17 TEN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 72% of them, Titans 28%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+18.5%
Jaguars by 9–1624.0%
Jaguars by 1–828.1%
Level after regulation4.7%
Titans by 1–815.9%
Titans by 9–166.4%
Titans by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Titans: the final margin was Jaguars by 4, without the luck Jaguars by 9.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • N. Folk, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Little, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 5 for 39 yards, Titans 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:02 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.5 pts
Q1 2:55 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 5:42 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% JAX +3.0 pts
Q2 5:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 10 yards +5% TEN +2.1 pts
Q2 0:12 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Brian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% TEN +1.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Yasir Abdullah), 10 yards +2% TEN +0.8 pts
Q3 12:32 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 4 yards 0% TEN +0.4 pts
Q4 12:09 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.5 pts
Q4 0:34 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.1 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:26 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% JAX JAX: Turnover
2 Q1 3:42 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% TEN JAX: Punt
3 Q2 4:46 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +10% JAX TEN: End of half
4 Q2 0:07 The Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% TEN JAX: Punt
5 Q4 14:13 The Jaguars converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 8:01 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +16% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:15 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +39% JAX TEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:38 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Roger McCreary (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jerome Baker (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out (IR), replaced by m.jones · 4.9 pts
  • Anton Harrison (JAX T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 80% · Titans 20%

Final margin
Jaguars by 4
Luck in points
5.8 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 9.8
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 72% · Titans 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Jaguars · Titans

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