luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Bills at Rams, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Bills 44–42, but the Bills played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Bills were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:38 left): Blocked punt by the Rams, worth 16 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Buffalo Bills 42
Los Angeles Rams 44

December 8, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3.5

Luck index +60 Rams very lucky · −60 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Rams win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 24 LA 0
  2. 2 BUF 37 LA 20
  3. 3 BUF 23 LA 10
  4. 4 BUF 28 LA 20
  5. 5 BUF 31 LA 26
  6. 6 BUF 36 LA 34
  7. 7 BUF 17 LA 19
  8. 8 BUF 24 LA 30
  9. 9 BUF 24 LA 34
  10. 10 BUF 9 LA 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 60% of them, Rams 40%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+12.5%
Bills by 9–1617.2%
Bills by 1–829.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Rams by 1–821.8%
Rams by 9–1610.9%
Rams by 17+6.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 2, without the luck Rams by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Karty, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 7 for 59 yards, Rams 9 for 99 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:46 Roughing the Passer on the Rams, 15 yards +6% BUF +2.4 pts
Q1 4:20 Defensive Offside on the Rams, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.2 pts
Q2 10:18 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams, 10 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 9:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 10 yards +3% LA +1.5 pts
Q2 2:59 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Rasul Douglas), 4 yards, wiping out the play +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 6:22 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.7 pts
Q3 6:03 Face Mask on the Bills, 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% LA +2.2 pts
Q3 0:12 Horse Collar Tackle on the Rams (Jared Verse), 15 yards +1% BUF +1.6 pts
Q4 9:16 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 5:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 5 yards +6% LA +1.6 pts
Q4 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 9 yards +5% BUF +1.3 pts
Q4 1:35 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q4 1:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 34 yards +2% BUF +3.1 pts
Q4 1:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Darious Williams), 6 yards +3% BUF +1.1 pts
Q4 1:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards +11% LA +1.4 pts
Q4 0:07 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.5 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:46 Roughing the Passer on the Rams, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:40 J. Karty made 22-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +11% BUF LA: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 12:38 Blocked punt by the RamsSpecial teams +16% LA LA: Opp touchdown
5 Q3 4:04 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 5 yardsJudgment calls +6% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:53 The Rams converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% LA LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dalton Kincaid (BUF TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Dawuane Smoot (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 39% · Rams 61%

Final margin
Rams by 2
Luck in points
1.4 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Bills 60% · Rams 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Bills · Rams

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