luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · December 12, 2024–December 16

Week 15 2024: who deserved to win

1 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Colts 31–13 in a game they win 48% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 15 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rams 12–6 @ 49ers 41% 60% Coin flip
Buccaneers 40–17 @ Chargers 41% 94% Deserved
Cowboys 30–14 @ Panthers 43% 81% Deserved
Bills 48–42 @ Lions 43% 90% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 31–13 vs Colts 48% +52
2 Commanders W 20–19 @ Saints 54% +46
3 Rams W 12–6 @ 49ers 60% +40
4 Texans W 20–12 vs Dolphins 71% +29
5 Jets W 32–25 @ Jaguars 74% +26
6 Cardinals W 30–17 vs Patriots 78% +22
7 Bengals W 37–27 @ Titans 80% +20
8 Cowboys W 30–14 @ Panthers 81% +19
9 Vikings W 30–12 vs Bears 84% +16
10 Eagles W 27–13 vs Steelers 84% +16
11 Falcons W 15–9 @ Raiders 86% +14
12 Bills W 48–42 @ Lions 90% +10
13 Buccaneers W 40–17 @ Chargers 94% +6
14 Packers W 30–13 @ Seahawks 96% +4
15 Chiefs W 21–7 @ Browns 98% +2
16 Ravens W 35–14 @ Giants 98% +2
17 Giants L 14–35 vs Ravens 2% −2
18 Browns L 7–21 vs Chiefs 2% −2
19 Seahawks L 13–30 vs Packers 4% −4
20 Chargers L 17–40 vs Buccaneers 6% −6
21 Lions L 42–48 vs Bills 10% −10
22 Raiders L 9–15 vs Falcons 14% −14
23 Steelers L 13–27 @ Eagles 16% −16
24 Bears L 12–30 @ Vikings 16% −16
25 Panthers L 14–30 vs Cowboys 19% −19
26 Titans L 27–37 vs Bengals 20% −20
27 Patriots L 17–30 @ Cardinals 22% −22
28 Jaguars L 25–32 vs Jets 26% −26
29 Dolphins L 12–20 @ Texans 29% −29
30 49ers L 6–12 vs Rams 40% −40
31 Saints L 19–20 vs Commanders 46% −46
32 Colts L 13–31 @ Broncos 52% −52