luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · December 19, 2024–December 23

Week 16 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Panthers beat the Cardinals 36–30 in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 16 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 36–30 vs Cardinals 34% 26% Lucky
Cowboys 26–24 vs Buccaneers 37% 38% Lucky
Commanders 36–33 vs Eagles 38% 58% Coin flip
Dolphins 29–17 vs 49ers 44% 27% Lucky

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Panthers W 36–30 vs Cardinals 26% +74
2 Dolphins W 29–17 vs 49ers 27% +73
3 Cowboys W 26–24 vs Buccaneers 38% +62
4 Commanders W 36–33 vs Eagles 58% +42
5 Vikings W 27–24 @ Seahawks 61% +39
6 Bills W 24–21 vs Patriots 65% +35
7 Chargers W 34–27 vs Broncos 74% +26
8 Raiders W 19–14 vs Jaguars 80% +20
9 Rams W 19–9 @ Jets 84% +16
10 Chiefs W 27–19 vs Texans 87% +13
11 Colts W 38–30 vs Titans 88% +12
12 Ravens W 34–17 vs Steelers 93% +7
13 Packers W 34–0 vs Saints 97% +3
14 Lions W 34–17 @ Bears 98% +2
15 Bengals W 24–6 vs Browns 99% +1
16 Falcons W 34–7 vs Giants 99% +1
17 Giants L 7–34 @ Falcons 1% −1
18 Browns L 6–24 @ Bengals 1% −1
19 Bears L 17–34 vs Lions 2% −2
20 Saints L 0–34 @ Packers 3% −3
21 Steelers L 17–34 @ Ravens 7% −7
22 Titans L 30–38 @ Colts 12% −12
23 Texans L 19–27 @ Chiefs 13% −13
24 Jets L 9–19 vs Rams 16% −16
25 Jaguars L 14–19 @ Raiders 20% −20
26 Broncos L 27–34 @ Chargers 26% −26
27 Patriots L 21–24 @ Bills 35% −35
28 Seahawks L 24–27 vs Vikings 39% −39
29 Eagles L 33–36 @ Commanders 42% −42
30 Buccaneers L 24–26 @ Cowboys 62% −62
31 49ers L 17–29 @ Dolphins 73% −73
32 Cardinals L 30–36 @ Panthers 74% −74