luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Jaguars at Raiders, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Jaguars 19–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 8 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: drops alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:03 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 8, worth 26 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 14
Las Vegas Raiders 19

December 22, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −2.5

Luck index +20 Raiders about even · −20 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 2, Raiders win 8.

  1. 1 JAX 27 LV 14
  2. 2 JAX 20 LV 17
  3. 3 JAX 19 LV 21
  4. 4 JAX 12 LV 16
  5. 5 JAX 10 LV 17
  6. 6 JAX 13 LV 23
  7. 7 JAX 13 LV 26
  8. 8 JAX 7 LV 24
  9. 9 JAX 13 LV 33
  10. 10 JAX 2 LV 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 20% of them, Raiders 80%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+2.1%
Jaguars by 9–165.5%
Jaguars by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation2.6%
Raiders by 1–825.9%
Raiders by 9–1620.5%
Raiders by 17+32.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Raiders by 5, without the luck Raiders by 11.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 49 yds made · 79% expected
  • D. Carlson, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Carlson, 46 yds missed · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 8 for 60 yards, Raiders 7 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:02 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% JAX +1.9 pts
Q1 4:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 15 yards +4% JAX +1.4 pts
Q1 2:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Darnay Holmes), 8 yards +5% JAX +1.1 pts
Q2 14:05 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +2% LV +0.8 pts
Q2 10:28 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% LV +2.8 pts
Q2 3:22 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 3:22 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q2 3:22 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.4 pts
Q2 3:03 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.6 pts
Q3 13:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% LV +1.8 pts
Q3 6:32 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 9 yards, wiping out the play +8% JAX +2.5 pts
Q3 4:20 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +4% LV +1.2 pts
Q3 0:48 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 5 yards +4% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 3:45 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Terrace Marshall Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +2.0 pts
Q4 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +21% LV +1.6 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:37 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +8% JAX JAX: Punt
2 Q2 10:28 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +9% LV LV: Field goal
3 Q3 6:32 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q3 5:20 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% JAX JAX: Punt
5 Q3 1:03 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +26% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q4 13:38 The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% LV LV: End of game
8 Q4 1:00 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out (IR), replaced by m.jones · 4.5 pts
  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ronald Darby (JAX CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cooper Hodges (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 1% · Raiders 99%

Final margin
Raiders by 5
Luck in points
6.9 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 11.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 20% · Raiders 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Jaguars · Raiders

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