luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 21, 2024

Steelers at Ravens, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Steelers 34–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:15 left): Return touchdown by the Ravens, worth 15 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Baltimore Ravens 34

December 21, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7

Luck index +7 Ravens about even · −7 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 PIT 22 BAL 16
  2. 2 PIT 34 BAL 38
  3. 3 PIT 36 BAL 42
  4. 4 PIT 17 BAL 26
  5. 5 PIT 41 BAL 53
  6. 6 PIT 10 BAL 24
  7. 7 PIT 26 BAL 44
  8. 8 PIT 13 BAL 35
  9. 9 PIT 23 BAL 49
  10. 10 PIT 13 BAL 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 7% of them, Ravens 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.4%
Steelers by 9–161.4%
Steelers by 1–84.6%
Level after regulation0.5%
Ravens by 1–810.9%
Ravens by 9–1620.7%
Ravens by 17+61.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.4 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 17, without the luck Ravens by 7.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 51 yds made · 62% expected
  • C. Boswell, 51 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Tucker, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 5 for 29 yards, Ravens 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Cory Trice), 5 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 14:01 False Start on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 8:44 Face Mask on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 15 yards +6% BAL +1.3 pts
Q3 13:08 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q3 5:14 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Steelers, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q4 10:40 False Start on the Steelers, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q4 3:17 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.7 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:51 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL BAL: Punt
2 Q2 13:49 Z. Flowers dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 167 catchable balls before this +5% PIT BAL: Punt
3 Q2 11:11 The Steelers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL PIT: Punt
4 Q2 8:44 Face Mask on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 6149 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:33 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 7:47 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:44 N. Harris dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 115 catchable balls before this +6% BAL PIT: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 13:15 The Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +15% BAL PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • George Pickens (PIT WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Donte Jackson (PIT CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Larry Ogunjobi (PIT DT), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 4% · Ravens 96%

Final margin
Ravens by 17
Luck in points
9.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 7% · Ravens 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Steelers · Ravens

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