luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Patriots at Bills, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Patriots 24–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Bills were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:17 left): Return touchdown by the Bills, worth 30 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

New England Patriots 21
Buffalo Bills 24

December 22, 2024 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −14

Luck index +35 Bills lucky · −35 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 3, Bills win 7.

  1. 1 NE 22 BUF 7
  2. 2 NE 22 BUF 14
  3. 3 NE 27 BUF 24
  4. 4 NE 13 BUF 16
  5. 5 NE 7 BUF 13
  6. 6 NE 19 BUF 27
  7. 7 NE 24 BUF 35
  8. 8 NE 17 BUF 31
  9. 9 NE 6 BUF 24
  10. 10 NE 6 BUF 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 35% of them, Bills 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+5.1%
Patriots by 9–169.4%
Patriots by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Bills by 1–825.3%
Bills by 9–1621.3%
Bills by 17+17.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Bills by 3, without the luck Bills by 9.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Patriots 5 for 34 yards, Bills 13 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Baylon Spector), 14 yards +5% NE +0.8 pts
Q1 5:09 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q1 0:01 Encroachment on the Bills (A.J. Epenesa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.9 pts
Q2 14:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 4 yards +2% NE +1.2 pts
Q2 14:50 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 10 yards +3% BUF +1.3 pts
Q2 11:56 Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.5 pts
Q2 11:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Marcellas Dial), 10 yards +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 8:37 False Start on the Bills (Amari Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.4 pts
Q2 1:22 Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% NE +1.2 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +1% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 11:14 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 8:37 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 4:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 7 yards 0% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 4:07 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 2:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Terrel Bernard), 8 yards +1% NE +1.3 pts
Q4 2:26 Encroachment on the Bills (Dawuane Smoot), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 2:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Kaiir Elam), 3 yards +3% NE +1.8 pts
Q4 1:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Kaiir Elam), 3 yards +4% NE +1.8 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:09 The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:06 The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +11% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:45 The Bills converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q3 6:07 T. Bass made 50-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 36 of 52 from 45+ before +9% BUF BUF: Punt
5 Q3 2:38 The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% NE NE: Turnover
6 Q3 1:58 The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% BUF NE: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 14:27 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BUF BUF: Punt
8 Q4 10:17 The Patriots fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +30% BUF NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rasul Douglas (BUF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Jones (NE CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NE SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 7% · Bills 93%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
6.8 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 9.8
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 35% · Bills 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Patriots · Bills

More from Week 16 2024