luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 21, 2024

Texans at Chiefs, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Texans 27–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:04 left): Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Houston Texans 19
Kansas City Chiefs 27

December 21, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +13 Chiefs about even · −13 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 31 KC 26
  2. 2 HOU 21 KC 23
  3. 3 HOU 23 KC 28
  4. 4 HOU 20 KC 27
  5. 5 HOU 21 KC 31
  6. 6 HOU 3 KC 16
  7. 7 HOU 7 KC 22
  8. 8 HOU 13 KC 31
  9. 9 HOU 0 KC 23
  10. 10 HOU 0 KC 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 13% of them, Chiefs 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.9%
Texans by 9–162.6%
Texans by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation1.4%
Chiefs by 1–825.2%
Chiefs by 9–1623.5%
Chiefs by 17+37.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 8, without the luck Chiefs by 6.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • H. Butker, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • H. Butker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 6 for 45 yards, Chiefs 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:54 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +5% HOU +1.3 pts
Q2 8:04 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yards, wiping out the play +14% KC +2.2 pts
Q2 6:46 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Jimmie Ward), 5 yards +2% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 1:14 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Tank Dell), 10 yards +5% KC +1.2 pts
Q2 0:45 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 5 yards +2% KC +0.8 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Deon Bush), 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 1:27 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 12:00 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.3 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:04 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% KC HOU: Field goal
2 Q1 0:23 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:30 The Texans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +12% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:04 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 21 flags in 3118 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +14% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:54 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% KC HOU: End of half
6 Q3 9:57 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +11% HOU KC: Touchdown
7 Q3 8:38 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedD. Schultz dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 203 catchable balls before this +7% KC HOU: Punt
8 Q3 1:27 The Texans converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedDelay of Game on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% HOU HOU: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chamarri Conner (KC FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (KC K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juice Scruggs (HOU C), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 6% · Chiefs 94%

Final margin
Chiefs by 8
Luck in points
1.3 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 13% · Chiefs 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Texans · Chiefs

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