luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Browns at Bengals, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Browns 24–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:40 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 13 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cleveland Browns 6
Cincinnati Bengals 24

December 22, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −10

Luck index +1 Bengals about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Bengals win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 17 CIN 21
  2. 2 CLE 6 CIN 13
  3. 3 CLE 27 CIN 38
  4. 4 CLE 6 CIN 20
  5. 5 CLE 10 CIN 27
  6. 6 CLE 3 CIN 23
  7. 7 CLE 0 CIN 24
  8. 8 CLE 6 CIN 32
  9. 9 CLE 3 CIN 34
  10. 10 CLE 0 CIN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 1% of them, Bengals 99%. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.1%
Browns by 1–80.8%
Level after regulation0.4%
Bengals by 1–84.3%
Bengals by 9–1611.0%
Bengals by 17+83.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 18, without the luck Bengals by 17.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 47 yds missed · 70% expected
  • C. York, 59 yds made · 48% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 5 for 41 yards, Bengals 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:12 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Mohamoud Diabate), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 2:31 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q3 11:29 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Bengals, 5 yards 0% CLE +0.5 pts
Q3 7:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Marco Wilson), 1 yard 0% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 2:18 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 15 yards +4% CLE +1.8 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Jordan Akins), 10 yards +3% CIN +1.0 pts
Q4 14:51 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Jamari Thrash), 10 yards 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 6:20 Face Mask on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 4 yards 0% CIN +0.6 pts
Q4 2:22 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Dorian Thompson-Robinson), 12 yards +1% CIN +0.8 pts
Q4 1:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Josh Newton), 9 yards 0% CLE +0.5 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Browns fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% CIN CLE: Punt
2 Q1 1:22 C. York missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 7 of 14 from 45+ before +5% CLE CIN: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedE. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 172 catchable balls before this +4% CIN CLE: Punt
4 Q3 2:18 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1164 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +4% CLE CLE: Turnover
5 Q4 13:40 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% CIN CLE: Turnover
6 Q4 8:29 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% CIN CLE: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 4:33 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedThe Bengals fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CLE CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:00 The Browns converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Evan McPherson (CIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jameis Winston (CLE QB), out, replaced by d.thompson-robinson · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Newsome II (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shelby Harris (CLE DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 18
Luck in points
0.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 17.7
Replay with same day's form
Browns 1% · Bengals 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Browns · Bengals

More from Week 16 2024