luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 23, 2024

Saints at Packers, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Saints 34–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:55 left): the Packers converted 4th & 2, worth 8 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 0
Green Bay Packers 34

December 23, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −14

Luck index +3 Packers about even · −3 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 0, Packers win 10.

  1. 1 NO 13 GB 16
  2. 2 NO 24 GB 31
  3. 3 NO 7 GB 16
  4. 4 NO 6 GB 17
  5. 5 NO 20 GB 35
  6. 6 NO 10 GB 27
  7. 7 NO 7 GB 27
  8. 8 NO 7 GB 30
  9. 9 NO 10 GB 37
  10. 10 NO 0 GB 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 3% of them, Packers 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+0.1%
Saints by 9–160.2%
Saints by 1–81.9%
Level after regulation0.5%
Packers by 1–86.6%
Packers by 9–1619.0%
Packers by 17+71.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.5 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 34, without the luck Packers by 20.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 55 yds made · 56% expected
  • B. McManus, 46 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 7 for 40 yards, Packers 6 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +1.3 pts
Q1 5:44 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 4 yards +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q1 5:44 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.4 pts
Q1 4:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Tanoh Kpassagnon), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% GB +1.3 pts
Q2 11:04 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q2 4:29 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.6 pts
Q2 1:10 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Brenton Cox), 16 yards +2% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 12:20 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q3 5:44 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 5 yards 0% NO +0.6 pts
Q4 13:22 Tripping on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 15 yards 0% NO +0.5 pts
Q4 13:22 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.5 pts
Q4 7:03 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% GB +1.8 pts
Q4 5:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Colby Wooden), 15 yards 0% NO +1.6 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 15 flags in 4938 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +3% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:45 The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +3% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:47 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% GB NO: Punt
4 Q1 4:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Tanoh Kpassagnon), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 3033 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +4% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:26 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:44 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +2% NO GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 15:00 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q2 12:55 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Javon Bullard (GB SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Williams (GB SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Derek Carr (NO QB), out, replaced by s.rattler · 5.7 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bub Means (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nathan Shepherd (NO DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nick Saldiveri (NO G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 34
Luck in points
13.5 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 20.5
Replay with same day's form
Saints 3% · Packers 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Saints · Packers

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