luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Giants at Falcons, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Giants 34–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:05 left): Return touchdown by the Falcons, worth 35 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

New York Giants 7
Atlanta Falcons 34

December 22, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −9.5

Luck index +1 Falcons about even · −1 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Falcons win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 10 ATL 13
  2. 2 NYG 13 ATL 21
  3. 3 NYG 6 ATL 17
  4. 4 NYG 6 ATL 20
  5. 5 NYG 13 ATL 31
  6. 6 NYG 13 ATL 33
  7. 7 NYG 7 ATL 30
  8. 8 NYG 0 ATL 26
  9. 9 NYG 14 ATL 44
  10. 10 NYG 6 ATL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 1% of them, Falcons 99%. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.0%
Giants by 9–160.0%
Giants by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.2%
Falcons by 1–82.0%
Falcons by 9–1610.2%
Falcons by 17+87.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 27, without the luck Falcons by 20.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • R. Patterson, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 10 for 85 yards, Falcons 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:33 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Brian Burns), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.3 pts
Q2 10:31 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q2 9:06 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.6 pts
Q2 3:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deonte Banks), 30 yards +9% ATL +3.1 pts
Q2 0:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Drake London), 15 yards +2% NYG +1.4 pts
Q4 12:04 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards 0% NYG +1.8 pts
Q4 9:13 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Matt Judon), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.4 pts
Q4 8:45 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Malik Nabers), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% ATL +2.2 pts
Q4 2:45 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% ATL +1.5 pts
Q4 2:45 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.6 pts
Q4 2:04 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Wan'Dale Robinson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% ATL +3.0 pts
Q4 1:33 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts
Q4 1:22 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.1 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:14 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:48 R. Patterson missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +9% NYG ATL: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 The Giants converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:52 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 8:05 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +35% ATL NYG: Punt
6 Q2 3:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deonte Banks), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1531 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:16 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedThe Falcons were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Drake London), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2522 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +19% NYG ATL: Opp touchdown
8 Q3 14:27 The Giants were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +13% ATL NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Younghoe Koo (ATL K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Theo Johnson (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dexter Lawrence (NYG NT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bobby Okereke (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Nubin (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Stroman (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Falcons 100%

Final margin
Falcons by 27
Luck in points
6.3 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 20.7
Replay with same day's form
Giants 1% · Falcons 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Giants · Falcons

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