luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Rams at Jets, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Jets 19–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:53 left): the Jets were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 21 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 19
New York Jets 9

December 22, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3

Luck index +16 Rams about even · −16 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 8, Jets win 2.

  1. 1 LA 24 NYJ 0
  2. 2 LA 24 NYJ 6
  3. 3 LA 24 NYJ 10
  4. 4 LA 14 NYJ 3
  5. 5 LA 26 NYJ 17
  6. 6 LA 12 NYJ 6
  7. 7 LA 13 NYJ 10
  8. 8 LA 15 NYJ 13
  9. 9 LA 7 NYJ 10
  10. 10 LA 14 NYJ 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 84% of them, Jets 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+27.9%
Rams by 9–1624.6%
Rams by 1–831.0%
Level after regulation2.3%
Jets by 1–89.8%
Jets by 9–163.6%
Jets by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +22.7 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 10, without the luck Jets by 12.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Carlson, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Karty, 38 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Karty, 45 yds made · 76% expected
  • A. Carlson, 49 yds missed · 68% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 5 for 45 yards, Jets 8 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:23 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams (Hunter Long), 10 yards +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 10:03 Illegal Motion on the Rams (Hunter Long), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +13% NYJ +3.3 pts
Q2 2:27 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +7% LA +1.3 pts
Q2 0:30 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q3 14:50 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% LA +2.1 pts
Q3 8:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% LA +1.2 pts
Q3 7:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jets, 5 yards +3% LA +1.0 pts
Q3 3:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Tony Adams), 12 yards +3% LA +0.8 pts
Q4 12:52 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q4 9:28 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +7% LA +1.8 pts
Q4 7:33 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 6:36 Taunting on the Rams (Kyren Williams), 15 yards +2% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q4 2:02 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.5 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:03 Illegal Motion on the Rams (Hunter Long), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 807 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +13% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 8:01 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% LA NYJ: Field goal
3 Q2 2:27 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% LA LA: Field goal
4 Q2 1:14 The Jets converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q3 13:43 The Jets converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +9% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 5:19 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% LA NYJ: Turnover
7 Q4 12:52 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFalse Start on the Rams, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% NYJ LA: Field goal
8 Q4 11:53 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Jets fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% LA NYJ: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ NT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 8% · Jets 92%

Final margin
Rams by 10
Luck in points
22.7 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 12.7
Replay with same day's form
Rams 84% · Jets 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Rams · Jets

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