luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · December 25, 2024–December 30

Week 17 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Cardinals 13–9 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 17 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 45–33 vs Colts 29% 31% Lucky
Jaguars 20–13 vs Titans 47% 61% Deserved
Vikings 27–25 vs Packers 47% 81% Deserved

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Rams W 13–9 vs Cardinals 17% +83
2 Giants W 45–33 vs Colts 31% +69
3 Lions W 40–34 @ 49ers 38% +62
4 Jaguars W 20–13 vs Titans 61% +39
5 Commanders W 30–24 vs Falcons 80% +20
6 Vikings W 27–25 vs Packers 81% +19
7 Seahawks W 6–3 @ Bears 84% +16
8 Dolphins W 20–3 @ Browns 88% +12
9 Bengals W 30–24 vs Broncos 89% +11
10 Chiefs W 29–10 @ Steelers 90% +10
11 Bills W 40–14 vs Jets 91% +9
12 Chargers W 40–7 @ Patriots 92% +8
13 Raiders W 25–10 @ Saints 93% +7
14 Eagles W 41–7 vs Cowboys 95% +5
15 Ravens W 31–2 @ Texans 97% +3
16 Buccaneers W 48–14 vs Panthers 100% 0
17 Panthers L 14–48 @ Buccaneers 0% 0
18 Texans L 2–31 vs Ravens 3% −3
19 Cowboys L 7–41 @ Eagles 5% −5
20 Saints L 10–25 vs Raiders 7% −7
21 Patriots L 7–40 vs Chargers 8% −8
22 Jets L 14–40 @ Bills 9% −9
23 Steelers L 10–29 vs Chiefs 10% −10
24 Broncos L 24–30 @ Bengals 11% −11
25 Browns L 3–20 vs Dolphins 12% −12
26 Bears L 3–6 vs Seahawks 16% −16
27 Packers L 25–27 @ Vikings 19% −19
28 Falcons L 24–30 @ Commanders 20% −20
29 Titans L 13–20 @ Jaguars 39% −39
30 49ers L 34–40 vs Lions 62% −62
31 Colts L 33–45 @ Giants 69% −69
32 Cardinals L 9–13 @ Rams 83% −83