Week 17 2024 · December 28, 2024
Cardinals at Rams, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?
The Rams stole one. They beat the Cardinals 13–9, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 8 of 10.
The Rams won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Rams were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:42 left): the Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 35 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 9 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Rams very lucky · −83 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 8, Rams win 2.
- 1 ARI 45 LA 14
- 2 ARI 38 LA 17
- 3 ARI 31 LA 15
- 4 ARI 23 LA 11
- 5 ARI 23 LA 13
- 6 ARI 24 LA 17
- 7 ARI 31 LA 27
- 8 ARI 29 LA 27
- 9 ARI 34 LA 37
- 10 ARI 17 LA 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Rams won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for the Rams: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.09 | worse by 0.01 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.13 | better by 0.16 |
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | +0.10 | worse by 0.13 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.09 | better by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 83% of them, Rams 17%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 30.8% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 28.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 10.7% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 4.6% |
| Rams by 17+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Karty, 53 yds made · 70% expected
- C. Ryland, 28 yds made · 96% expected
- J. Karty, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 95% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 9 for 62 yards, Rams 7 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:15 | False Start on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:41 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:32 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +3% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Illegal Touch Pass on the Cardinals (Michael Wilson), 0 yards | 0% LA 0.0 pts |
| Q2 13:38 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards | +4% LA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 11:04 | False Start on the Rams (Hunter Long), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:35 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Cardinals (Dadrion Taylor-Demerson), 15 yards | +5% LA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:35 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +12% LA +3.8 pts |
| Q2 1:19 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:23 | Defensive Holding on the Rams, 1 yard | +3% ARI +1.4 pts |
| Q3 7:51 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +6% ARI +1.5 pts |
| Q3 4:18 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 10 yards | +3% LA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:42 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Michael Wilson), 10 yards | +3% LA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 10:41 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% ARI +1.7 pts |
| Q4 10:08 | Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Roy Lopez), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +24% LA +4.8 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:10 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +10% LA | ARI: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:35 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 14:04 | C. Ryland made 28-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him | +13% LA | ARI: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 10:41 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% ARI | ARI: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 10:08 | Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Roy Lopez), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 2195 snaps before, position avg 1 per 528 | +24% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 6:36 | J. Karty made 25-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him | +10% ARI | LA: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:35 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% ARI | ARI: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:42 | The Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +35% LA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
- Jonah Williams (ARI T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 67% · Rams 33%
- Final margin
- Rams by 4
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 83% · Rams 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · 
Cardinals · 
Rams
More from Week 17 2024
- Chiefs at Steelers KC 29–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Ravens at Texans BAL 31–2 · replay 97% for the winner
- Seahawks at Bears SEA 6–3 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Patriots LAC 40–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Broncos at Bengals CIN 30–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 48–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 41–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Colts at Giants NYG 45–33 · replay 31% for the winner
- Raiders at Saints LV 25–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 40–14 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Jaguars JAX 20–13 · replay 61% for the winner
- Dolphins at Browns MIA 20–3 · replay 88% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 27–25 · replay 81% for the winner
- Falcons at Commanders WAS 30–24 · replay 80% for the winner
- Lions at 49ers DET 40–34 · replay 38% for the winner