luckadjusted

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 48–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 76% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48

December 29, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −9.5

Luck index 0 Buccaneers about even · 0 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Buccaneers win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 13 TB 21
  2. 2 CAR 17 TB 31
  3. 3 CAR 10 TB 28
  4. 4 CAR 13 TB 34
  5. 5 CAR 7 TB 31
  6. 6 CAR 14 TB 40
  7. 7 CAR 14 TB 43
  8. 8 CAR 7 TB 38
  9. 9 CAR 9 TB 45
  10. 10 CAR 3 TB 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 0% of them, Buccaneers 100%. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.0%
Panthers by 9–160.0%
Panthers by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Buccaneers by 1–80.7%
Buccaneers by 9–163.8%
Buccaneers by 17+95.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 34, without the luck Buccaneers by 27.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 53 yds missed · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 4 for 30 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:01 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (A'Shawn Robinson), 5 yards +2% TB +1.4 pts
Q2 6:08 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (A'Shawn Robinson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% TB +3.5 pts
Q2 5:45 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards 0% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 1:01 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Vita Vea), 15 yards +2% CAR +1.6 pts
Q2 0:46 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.2 pts
Q2 0:15 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Calijah Kancey), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.1 pts
Q3 8:32 Offensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Rakim Jarrett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 3:43 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.3 pts
Q4 13:42 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.1 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:12 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q1 2:00 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% CAR TB: Field goal
3 Q1 0:25 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% TB CAR: Punt
4 Q2 10:41 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% CAR TB: Field goal
5 Q2 10:35 C. McLaughlin made 34-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +3% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:20 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +2% TB CAR: Punt
7 Q2 0:46 R. Miller dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 13 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% CAR TB: Punt
8 Q2 0:03 E. Pineiro missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 28 of 34 from 45+ before +2% TB CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cade Otton (TB TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (TB WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Taylor Moton (CAR T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Josey Jewell (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chau Smith-Wade (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 34
Luck in points
6.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 27.3
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 0% · Buccaneers 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

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