luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Ravens at Giants, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Giants 35–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 89% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:23 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 13, worth 9 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 35
New York Giants 14

December 15, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −16.5

Luck index +2 Ravens about even · −2 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 44 NYG 9
  2. 2 BAL 41 NYG 14
  3. 3 BAL 37 NYG 13
  4. 4 BAL 31 NYG 10
  5. 5 BAL 28 NYG 10
  6. 6 BAL 33 NYG 17
  7. 7 BAL 16 NYG 3
  8. 8 BAL 24 NYG 13
  9. 9 BAL 38 NYG 31
  10. 10 BAL 13 NYG 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 98% of them, Giants 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+77.9%
Ravens by 9–1614.2%
Ravens by 1–85.8%
Level after regulation0.5%
Giants by 1–81.4%
Giants by 9–160.2%
Giants by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 21, without the luck Ravens by 19.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Ravens 12 for 112 yards, Giants 6 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:40 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +1.0 pts
Q2 12:40 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 10:53 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Matthew Adams), 10 yards +1% BAL +1.1 pts
Q2 8:03 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.8 pts
Q2 4:15 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yards +6% NYG +1.6 pts
Q2 4:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 18 yards +3% NYG +1.0 pts
Q2 2:46 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 3 yards +6% NYG +1.3 pts
Q2 0:32 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Greg Dulcich), 10 yards +1% BAL +1.1 pts
Q3 14:27 Encroachment on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q3 14:07 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Malik Nabers), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% BAL +2.1 pts
Q3 13:01 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 1:54 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 0:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 16 yards +2% NYG +2.0 pts
Q4 14:53 False Start on the Ravens, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.5 pts
Q4 8:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 24 yards 0% NYG +1.9 pts
Q4 6:36 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Kristian Welch), 10 yards 0% NYG +1.2 pts
Q4 4:01 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Raheem Layne), 9 yards 0% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 2:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Desmond King), 5 yards 0% NYG +1.2 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:14 The Ravens fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG BAL: Punt
2 Q1 12:52 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +4% BAL NYG: Punt
3 Q1 3:23 The Ravens converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:51 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +5% BAL NYG: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:22 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:15 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3134 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +6% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:46 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2316 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 Q3 14:07 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Malik Nabers), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 685 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Theo Johnson (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dexter Lawrence (NYG NT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cordale Flott (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bobby Okereke (NYG LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Nubin (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andru Phillips (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rakeem Nunez-Roches (NYG NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 21
Luck in points
1.3 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 19.7
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 98% · Giants 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Ravens · Giants

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